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Unlimited climate change

Started by Woolly Bugger, November 25, 2022, 12:35:32 PM

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Woolly Bugger

ex - I'm not going to live with you through one more fishing season!
me -There's a season?

Pastor explains icons to my son: you know like the fish symbol on the back of cars.
My son: My dad has two fish on his car and they're both trout!

Onslow

https://www.wired.com/story/pliocene-like-monsoons-are-returning-to-the-american-southwest/#intcid=_wired-verso-hp-trending_b9a2dfa6-cfdd-4391-be22-d0000360222f_popular4-1


QuoteLeaf waxes also predate climate records from Antarctic ice cores, which go back only about a million years and require a climate that can support ice. One study used leaf waxes to glimpse the climate of a warmer Spain some 15 to 17 million years ago. Another looked at the moisture history of Southwest Africa for the past 3.5 million years.

Bhattacharya began using them while working as a postdoctoral fellow in Tierney's lab. Five years ago, she and Ran Feng, a coauthor, came up with the idea of studying the Pliocene while riding a bus during a conference for young researchers.

Their analysis started with marine sediments collected decades ago by the research vessel Joides Resolution, which roams the oceans drilling cores from as deep as 6 miles below the surface. The samples used for the study were taken off the coast of California: one off the Baja peninsula from a depth of more than 2,600 meters, and one from the East Cortes Basin at a depth of 1,700 meters. During the Pliocene, leaf waxes would have been transported west on the wind to become part of this marine sediment.

The team got a cube of each core, freeze-dried them, and ran them through "a glorified espresso machine," says Bhattacharya, using a solvent under pressure at high temperatures that extracted the waxes. Then they measured the hydrogen and carbon isotope composition using a gas chromatograph-isotope ratio mass spectrometer, which separated the waxes by their molecular mass.

"The hydrogen that's used to make the wax is coming from rainwater that the plant uses to grow. You can think of isotopes as like a fingerprint," Tierney says. "These isotopes actually trace the kind of rainfall you have, which is pretty cool. They can also trace the amount of winter rainfall versus summer rainfall. So, it's pretty powerful."

For the second part of the study, climate modeler Ran Feng, a professor at the University of Connecticut's Department of Geosciences, ran simulations to determine how sea temperatures influenced the stronger monsoons of the mid-Pliocene. Feng found that when marine temperatures—in an area that extends from Alaska to off the coast of Baja, California—were higher relative to the usually warmer tropical waters off Central America, they created conditions for stronger monsoons in the Southwest. Warmer local air acts like a heat pump, drawing the relatively cooler tropical air and warming it, pulling in moisture. "So it creates this loop," she says. "That's why this is able to drive moisture into the Southwest North America regions."



That kind of marine heat wave has occurred off California in recent years and will become more prevalent as temperatures rise, feeding more intense monsoon storms.

Onslow

#2
What appears to be a second generation solar farm is being constructed in Elkin along I 77 between the Yadkin river, northward to 268 bypass.  High gradient land was denuded of established forests.  It looks like an ecological disaster.

Sadly, policy is driven by what is fashionable, and not science or a pro-con chart where all facts are taken into consideration.

A good read concerning large scale solar farms.

https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2022/12/07/solars_lofty_ambitions_are_consuming_ever-vaster_expanses_of_land_down_below_868493.html?utm_campaign=JW_Promo_Player&utm_medium=Direct_home%20with-ora%20politics&utm_source=0-1

QuoteThis year the American Farmland Trust said that expanding solar power could gobble up as much as 3,900 square miles nationwide, and predicted that many Eastern states could lose between 1.5% and 6% of their undeveloped land to solar facilities – mostly on farmland that's flat, cleared, and near to existing transmission infrastructure. A Princeton University study this year forecast that achieving a net-zero-emissions economy by 2050 could directly impact a cumulative land area the size of Virginia, with forested lands the most directly impacted by solar deployment in Eastern states.

SFs will undoubtedly enlarge UHIs.  Some UHI tidbits below.

https://climate.ncsu.edu/research/uhi/news/




Woolly Bugger

ex - I'm not going to live with you through one more fishing season!
me -There's a season?

Pastor explains icons to my son: you know like the fish symbol on the back of cars.
My son: My dad has two fish on his car and they're both trout!

Woolly Bugger

#4
The risk of damage from hurricane winds will shift in coming decades.
See the impact by Zip code.
1 in 3 Americans may face risk by mid-century as winds are projected to reach further inland, northward


Hurricane winds fueled by climate change will reach further inland and put tens of millions more Americans' lives and homes at risk in the next three decades, according to a detailed new analysis released Monday.

The data from the nonprofit First Street Foundation comes as hundreds of people remain displaced across southwest Florida, five months after Hurricane Ian barreled across the state and killed nearly 150 people.

A Washington Post analysis of the group's data found that nearly 30 million Americans in about 235 counties across 18 states in the contiguous United States, from Texas to New England, will face new threats from hurricane-force winds. A third of Americans could experience damaging gales by 2053, in places as far inland as Tennessee and Arkansas.

What's the storm risk in your Zip code?

https://wapo.st/3y6VFRW
ex - I'm not going to live with you through one more fishing season!
me -There's a season?

Pastor explains icons to my son: you know like the fish symbol on the back of cars.
My son: My dad has two fish on his car and they're both trout!

Woolly Bugger



Mapping California's 'Zombie' Forests


A warming climate has left a fifth of the conifer forests that blanket California's Sierra Nevada stranded in habitats that no longer suit them, according to a study published last week by researchers at Stanford University.

In these "zombie forests," older, well-established trees — including ponderosa pines, Douglas firs and sugar pines — still tower overhead, but few young trees have been able to take root because the climate has become too warm and dry for them to thrive.

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Read the rest; New York Times
ex - I'm not going to live with you through one more fishing season!
me -There's a season?

Pastor explains icons to my son: you know like the fish symbol on the back of cars.
My son: My dad has two fish on his car and they're both trout!

Trout Maharishi

#6
Quote from: Woolly Bugger on March 11, 2023, 16:35:07 PM
Mapping California's 'Zombie' Forests


A warming climate has left a fifth of the conifer forests that blanket California's Sierra Nevada stranded in habitats that no longer suit them, according to a study published last week by researchers at Stanford University.

In these "zombie forests," older, well-established trees — including ponderosa pines, Douglas firs and sugar pines — still tower overhead, but few young trees have been able to take root because the climate has become too warm and dry for them to thrive.

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Read the rest; New York Times
Mumbo Jumbo <-;:  How many man hours and how much grant money did it take to figure out this jewel  of scientific information?
"We're all going to die, all of us, what a circus! That alone should make us love each other but it doesn't. We are terrorized and flattened by trivialities, we are eaten up by nothing."
― Charles Bukowski

Mudwall Gatewood 3.0

Quote from: Trout Maharishi on March 11, 2023, 17:13:53 PMMumbo Jumbo <-;:  How many man hours and much grant money did it take to figure out this jewel of a scientific information?

Likely part of long-term monitoring at Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment.  The logical questions should be what story these findings tells us and is there a solution.

https://news.stanford.edu/2023/02/28/zombie-forests/

I don't see the mumbo jumbo or any confusion. 
"Enjoy every sandwich."  Warren Zevon

Trout Maharishi

#8
So, it's scientifically significant that 500-year-old trees have moved 112' up the slope since 1930? I'd agree that the Western slope of the Sierras has become dryer and hotter. There were several factors discussed in the article that may have had an influence on the conifer's preference for a certain elevation. The mumbo jumbo reference comes from the fact that some of these studies are funded that may very well be meaningless, and there's not one thing we can do to change things. The conifers preference for a 112-600 ft elevation gain would be a good example. The trees may move up the slope, but I doubt the rain fall or temperature difference would be significant. Let face it, it's doubtful that a study like this would be funded without the global warming issue being involved. IMO monies spent on studies like this could be put to better use.
"We're all going to die, all of us, what a circus! That alone should make us love each other but it doesn't. We are terrorized and flattened by trivialities, we are eaten up by nothing."
― Charles Bukowski

Onslow

I don't think many expected to see the SW become so wet during a La Nina Winter.  There is strong certainty an El Nino pattern will set up this Fall, which pretty much ensures California will have a second year of above normal precipitation. Maybe new growth will get a toehold.

What concerns me is the SE.  We are due for some misery in terms of heat and drought.  Ample rain has fallen in the last decade, and things could flip. Some decades are good, some bad.  The 30s, 40s through 1955 were terrible for NC. Extreme floods, extreme heat, extreme drought were the norm.

I'm also going to hunt down an environmental assessment that was published by the USGS in 1899 consisting of observations for about 15 years. In the overview, there was mention of rampant forest fires, and all manner of calamity. The language was as depressing as what is found in the IPCC reports.

The state of the soil in Arkansas in the flat country is also very concerning.  When I was 9 years old, the soil there was rich and black looking.  Now it looks like Biloxi beach sand void of any organic material. There were may fallow fields in that part of the world last year.  This was a shocking site.

Tree preservation/planting, and food security should be top priorities.  There will come a day very soon where there will not be enough food to go around at the grocery store across every shelf, and it will happen sooner than later. 

Trout Maharishi

Quoteauthor=Onslow link=msg=179211 date=1678582777]
I don't think many expected to see the SW become so wet during a La Nina Winter.  There is strong certainty an El Nino pattern will set up this Fall, which pretty much ensures California will have a second year of above normal precipitation. Maybe new growth will get a toehold.

So maybe the conifers will move back down the slope?  :drum  <-;:
"We're all going to die, all of us, what a circus! That alone should make us love each other but it doesn't. We are terrorized and flattened by trivialities, we are eaten up by nothing."
― Charles Bukowski

Mudwall Gatewood 3.0

More rain/snow is great news, certainly when it comes to wildfires.  But is it precipitation or temperature, or both, that is the issue as it pertains to the conifers adapting?
"Enjoy every sandwich."  Warren Zevon

Trout Maharishi

Quote from: Mudwall Gatewood 3.0 on March 12, 2023, 14:34:18 PMMore rain/snow is great news, certainly when it comes to wildfires.  But is it precipitation or temperature, or both, that is the issue as it pertains to the conifers adapting?

I think it's both. I think one other major problem that has come about the last few years is the intensity of the forest fires. Several of these conifers are resistant to fire, and they need fire for the seeds to germinate. The recent fires have burned so hot that's it's killing trees and has made the soil virtually sterile. I never remember through the years fires killing trees like Sequoias and Ponderosa Pines but the last few years they have lost about 10-12% of Sequoias. I am concerned about droughts and fires, and I hope CA and the CAFS has learned some valuable lessons about the value of controlled burns. This is one of the most beautiful places in the world and the trees are magnificent both in size and age. I'm hoping they all continue to thrive for future generations.
"We're all going to die, all of us, what a circus! That alone should make us love each other but it doesn't. We are terrorized and flattened by trivialities, we are eaten up by nothing."
― Charles Bukowski

The Dude

Quote from: Trout Maharishi on March 12, 2023, 17:15:20 PMI am concerned about droughts and fires, and I hope CA and the CAFS has learned some valuable lessons about the value of controlled burns. This is one of the most beautiful places in the world and the trees are magnificent both in size and age. I'm hoping they all continue to thrive for future generations.
[/quote

I'm of the opinion that controlled burns are an antiquated forest science and that data has proven that the importance of rotting and decaying trees is way more important to the forest ecosystem and the foundations of the living forest.  If naturally occurring fires are a part of the life cycle in a forest, then let them occur naturally.  I fear that regular controlled burns may have become a way to justify jobs in the forest service.
I was born by the river in a little tent, And just like the river I've been running ever since, It's been a long, long time coming, But I know change is gonna come.

Woolly Bugger

#14
RETREAT IN RODANTHE
Along three blocks in a North Carolina beach town, severe erosion is upending life, forcing hard choices and offering a glimpse of the dilemmas other coastal communities will face

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RODANTHE, N.C. — Early last year, a house crumbled into the sea in this small Outer Banks community, home to some of the most rapid rates of erosion and sea level rise on the East Coast.

Not long after, another house fell. And then another.

Wave after wave, the ocean had clawed away at the beach until the stilted homes finally gave way. The collapses spread debris — and anxiety — for more than a dozen miles along the Cape Hatteras National Seashore. A video that captured one house surrendering to the surf in May went viral, bringing national attention to the urgency of the problem along this scenic stretch of coast.

See and read the full multi-media story at the Washington Post https://wapo.st/3JAGfLt

IMHO they should have never allowed the outerbanks to be (over)developed in the first place.
ex - I'm not going to live with you through one more fishing season!
me -There's a season?

Pastor explains icons to my son: you know like the fish symbol on the back of cars.
My son: My dad has two fish on his car and they're both trout!