We talk about too much rain, not enough rain. We can all bitch about it, but numbers don't lie. I decided to look at the numbers of my my local rain gauge over the last 10 years and see if there were any trends, anomalies, etc. When you get to my age, this the equivalent of jerking off.
Roanoke, VA gauge. 1400 feet. About 3/4 mi. as the crow flies.
I ended up cutting it off at 8 1/2 years because of some suspect numbers looking further back.
Weather Underground was my source. I don't necessarily take there numbers to be gospel, but they are measured consistently, at one gauge.
The table, then some explanation and thoughts:
(https://i.imgur.com/QBREBAil.png)
The bottom row is the totals per year.
The average precip per month is the far right column.
The yellow shaded cells are +50% or more than average. Wetter months
The blue shaded cells are -50% or more than average. Drier months.
2013 - 2016 were pretty normal years. Not too many extremes. 2016 was almost boring.
2017 was a gut punch. It either poured buckets for 3 months, or was really dry for 7.
July-December were devastating for small streams.
2018 was almost the opposite. 6 really wet months, 3 more above average, and only 1 dry month.
2019 was back to dry. If we didn't get the buckets of rain in June of that year, the total would have easily been the lowest. 2 out of three tough trout recruitment years. Results we are seeing now.
2020 will be memorable for many reasons. But if not for a gullywasher May, it was pretty boring rain wise. No big swings. 9 months above average drove the total up. But I'd rather have wet than dry. A good recruitment year? I'm seeing really good bug numbers, too.
The extremes? There are 15 months of +50% or more above average. There are 22 months of-50% or less below average. I wish those numbers were flip flopped. And the number of extremes in the last 4 years is double the number of the previous 4 years. That's kind of alarming.
I would like you smallie guys to give me your take on these numbers.
And I'd like to see some of you yahoos look at your history and let us know how your area has fared.
I pretty sure you can look at the Martinsville/Bassett area and see significantly different numbers. Only 60 miles away.
:;!
Thoughts?
I might scare the shit out of myself and do temperature, next.
Dougie going all scientist on us. Interesting.
Let's examine a watershed this watershed for a moment.
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Note the average flow is 42.3 cfs.
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Below is the average annual flows
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Ararat River carnage
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Keep in mind these are statewide rankings for NC, and does not take into accout local conditions. Looking at NC precip maps, it appears the mountains are seeing a relative uptick.
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Note the average flow in the top right corner below.
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I would love to see that New River data on a plot graph. Anyone got the time?
Stay on topic.
If you want to examine flows, start a new thread.
Quote from: Dougfish on January 02, 2021, 21:50:08 PMStay on topic.
If you want to examine flows, start a new thread.
Rainfall=streamflow
Average yearly streamflow directly corelates to rainfall. A plot graph of this woild be interesting to see how rainfall has decreased or increased over 100 years.
Quote from: driver on January 02, 2021, 23:13:41 PMQuote from: Dougfish on January 02, 2021, 21:50:08 PMStay on topic.
If you want to examine flows, start a new thread.
Rainfall=streamflow
Average yearly streamflow directly corelates to rainfall. A plot graph of this woild be interesting to see how rainfall has decreased or increased over 100 years.
The thread can go where the thread goes.
But I think stream flows deserves it's own thread. Much more nuanced.
I might set up a spreadsheet, but here's what you're looking for (2020)
Jan > 4.66
Feb > 7.02
March > 2.46
April > 7.24
May > 8.71
June > 4.28
July > 2.90. Julys are always dry in Elkin. Micro climate thang. Not at the BRP though.
August > 9.28
September > 4.65
October > 9.31
November > 6.77
December > 4.28
So this is around 72 inches of rain for an area that generally receives around 47 inches.
Keep in mind, the BRP around Doughton/Stone Mt. receives almost double this amount during the Summer months. Trout trickles were nearly too high to fish a good part of the Summer. That is just dang weird.
2016 was the perfect weather year this past decade.
I found the following on Weather Underground for Danville, but the data is from Greensboro. I just tracked 2020 and 2019.
2020 2019
Jan 0.68 4.15
feb 7.44 5.86
mar 2.63 3.22
apr 3.78 4.16
may 9.51 2.38
jun 2.41 9.77
jul 3.46 3.33
aug 6.99 5.36
sep 6.56 0.56
oct 5.02 5.45
nov 6.35 2.86
dec 4.44 5.02
59.27 52.12
Nerds
Quote from: itieuglyflies on January 02, 2021, 18:43:54 PMDougie going all scientist on us. Interesting.
I prefer to think I'm a detective.
Or a nerd.
Or both.
Get me your data, assholes.
"Get me your data, assholes."
Data? It's rained a lot this year, and the water's real cold in freestoners 'cause it's January.
(https://i.imgur.com/q5nUsNi.jpg)
Quote from: Dougfish on January 03, 2021, 22:28:06 PMGet me your data, assholes.
It would be my pleasure to collect and share data, but I am confused on the objective.
I just want to find 11,780 'likes'.
And they're going around playing you and laughing at you behind your back, Doug, whether you know it or not, they're laughing at you, and you've taken a forum that's is historically nonscience, and you've made it almost impossible for the scientifically challenged to enjoy this forum because of your request for data, because you demanded like nobody's ever demanded before. And I don't care how long it takes me, you know, we're going to have other dickheads coming forward — pretty good.
I like the detective shit..but it makes my head hurt. It rained a lot in 2020..DONE
You fukkers.
"She's filing her nails while they're dragging the lake."
https://youtu.be/k1Qnt5bx1OI
Brings those words of Dylan to mind "don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows"
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Folks in TN noticed too!
"You pray for rain, you gotta deal with the mud too."
Denzel Washington (The Magnificent Seven 2016)
"We're famous for our mud."
My Cousin Vinny
Alright assholes, quit jerkin, and fetch a sock.
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More to come.
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My uphill next door neighbor used to whine about swamp-like conditions in his back yard after heavy rains so 'bout 20 yrs ago he had a french drain system installed which created a small crick in the back of my yard and this summer he decided to address the water issue in his basement/garage so he had some guys come by for about a week to waterproof his garage and ever since I have a little crick running through the middle of my back yard in addition to the one in the back of the yard whenever we have a heavy rainfall so I think next time around I will probably buy a house at the top of the hill because we all live downstream except for the guy at the top all I hope for is that he doesn't decide to make any more improvements anytime soon.
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Troutrus:
I live at the top of a hill and have impeccable drainage on a property that drops 50'back to front. I assure you I am way more anal about moving water than your neighbor. Swales, downspout drains, foundation/basement drains, retaining wall drains, rain garden, etc.
But I don't divert it to my neighbors.
Asshole he is.
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QuoteA number of sites especially in western North Carolina had their wettest year on record, including Concord, North Wilkesboro, and Yadkinville. In Hickory, the race for the record wasn't even close; the 80.64 inches measured at the airport in 2020 easily bested the previous record of 66.87 inches, set in 2012.
https://climate.ncsu.edu/climateblog?id=330
Weather nerding 4.0
One hour 2020 climate recap hosted by NCSU.
https://ncsu.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJUqfu2pqzMtG9Q7IIBxTBniCVg88iTr_AoI
Quote from: Dougfish on January 04, 2021, 19:46:05 PMTroutrus:
I live at the top of a hill and have impeccable drainage on a property that drops 50'back to front. I assure you I am way more anal about moving water than your neighbor. Swales, downspout drains, foundation/basement drains, retaining wall drains, rain garden, etc.
But I don't divert it to my neighbors.
Asshole he is.
Sorry if I hinted of hard feelings toward the neighbor. Not the case. His actions have actually brought me closer to my dream of living on the water.
Like I said, it rained a lot this past year around here, and the water's real cold and high 'cause it's January. 85.5 inches in Boone, we got more than that here in Blowing Rock.
https://wataugaonline.com/2020-becomes-second-all-time-wettest-year-locally/?fbclid=IwAR0y4pQ_ernen2Y19cBWmYlJ6ZPVeUUjqIrj7cBJEbA5A5XwsT1uBYejJZg (https://wataugaonline.com/2020-becomes-second-all-time-wettest-year-locally/?fbclid=IwAR0y4pQ_ernen2Y19cBWmYlJ6ZPVeUUjqIrj7cBJEbA5A5XwsT1uBYejJZg)
(https://i.imgur.com/AB2BzxJ.png)
I think a lot of 2018 can be explained by those two hurricanes sitting on NC and SC for days.
BBBBBBut but but but hurricanes are symptomatic of the bigger issue right????
Where are we going with all this? What was the original hypothesis?
Quote from: Beetle on January 05, 2021, 09:35:13 AMWhat was the original hypothesis?
I believe the original hypothesis was:
<If an individual male is standing naked in the rain and jerking off, they will get wet, but if that same unclothed individual is completely immersed in H2O while jerking off , they are not wet; only when that individual emerges from being totally underwater are they wet.>
Ithinktoomuchisbetterthannotenough
Quote from: troutrus on January 05, 2021, 19:19:15 PMIthinktoomuchisbetterthannotenough
After going through drought years, this has been my mantra. Drought is bad for business.
I have over a thousand different kinds of plants in my garden. Only one is a cacti. And one native agave.
I prefer it that way.
I generally agree with the remarks below, but this year has been over the top. The love needs to be spread out a bit.
I'm starting to think long term climate for NW NC has changed permanently for the wetter. Soon Devils Garden above Stone Mt. may be as wet as Shining Rock.
This is a great thread for those of us who may be a bit anal contentive.
I liked it so much I bought a wireless rain gauge. It doesn't like our high efficiency windows. Not surprising - my cell phone has trouble getting a wireless signal when we're on the deck.
It's an "intergreted wirelsess" (sic) rain sensor with outdoor temperature and humidity-Self emptying rain collector. It even has a Blue LED backlight mode for those who liked Wooly's new theme.
I hope their engineers are better than their product information translators. Not sure of the quality yet, as I just put it out.
And no, "anal contentive" isn't a spellcheck gotcha. I'm a bit anal and content to be that way.
Had trouble with the picture.
GEEVON WEATHER STATIONS WIRELESS INDOOR OUTDOOR WITH RAIN GAUGE.jpg
I oft wonder about the accuracy of the rain gages, and wonder if you would test it against a regular rain gage when the freeze season is over.
I've given up on self performing temp gathering. Since I live in town there is simply too many buildings & hard surfaces causing distortions. Elkin generally runs a few degrees warmer then the surroundings due to the micro UHI effect.
I'll just put this here
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I think this will kill my fishing on the smith for a while
We aren't getting anywhere near 3-5". :laugh:
Quote from: Woolly Bugger on February 23, 2022, 14:55:23 PMI'll just put this here
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I think this will kill my fishing on the smith for a while
Gettin' to be Woolwine time.