Pretentious Snobby Bastard Fly Fishing!

Fly Fishing BS => The Gravel Bar => Topic started by: Woolly Bugger on April 11, 2008, 10:33:31 AM

Title: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Woolly Bugger on April 11, 2008, 10:33:31 AM
I'm in!  ;hb

Might be a little shaky for a while but I have FAITH in GE for the LONG TERM, although I'll take short term gains too!  ;hb

Any other VALUES out there? ;hb
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: troutphisher on April 11, 2008, 10:41:36 AM
Hmmmm


When the stock goes north, do you plan on buying a tailwater river with your profits?


Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Silver Creek on April 11, 2008, 12:32:03 PM
Wait on the buy order.

You never know when the stock will turn around. "Don't try to catch a falling knife" (http://www.fool.com/investing/value/2007/05/29/how-to-catch-a-falling-knife.aspx), otherwise you will get cut.

It is better to wait until the stock starts to rise again before buying but make sure that it is not a "dead cat bounce". (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_cat_bounce)
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: troutphisher on April 11, 2008, 13:53:01 PM
GE announced first quarter 2008 earnings from continuing operations of $4.4 billion with $.44 per share.

Smart buy  0--0
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: peter p on April 11, 2008, 20:37:35 PM
No disclaimers on this post?
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: troutphisher on April 11, 2008, 20:49:29 PM
Quote from: peter p on April 11, 2008, 20:37:35 PM
No disclaimers on this post?


Invest at you own personal risk factor, as index's may change at any given second during trading times.

Day trading is bad for your health, and may cause serious medical issues.

Including, but not limited to; heavy drug use, excessive alcohol consumption , hard exotic drug use and infection caused excessive needle injections.

And anything else you can think of....

That should pretty much cover it Pete.
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: peter p on April 11, 2008, 20:54:07 PM
That about covers most of it. 

Except maybe your investments are not guaranteed and may go down in value.  If you are lucky, you will hve enough $ left over at some point to retire by age 80 
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Woolly Bugger on April 12, 2008, 10:11:48 AM
Quote from: peter p on April 11, 2008, 20:37:35 PM
No disclaimers on this post?
We don't need no stinkin disclaimers...


The Stock Price Quote provided is for informational purposes only, and is not intended for trading purposes. BRFFF does not guarantee the sequence, accuracy, or completeness of any stock price information or other data displayed, nor shall PSA be liable in any way to the reader or to any other person, firm or corporation whatsoever for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omission of any such information or data or the transmission thereof, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon or for any damages arising therefrom or occasioned thereby or by reason of nonperformance or interruption, or termination, of the stock price information for any cause whatsoever.


Note: Historical and current stock price performance data is not necessarily indicative of future performance
.
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: phg on April 13, 2008, 13:14:46 PM
Yeah, that was a shocker!  At current levels, assuming that management isn't lying to us, it would appear to be a buy, but I'm with Peter, I'd wait a bit. 

The conundrum is this.  Normally, management "warns" when results are expected to come up short of estimates by a penny or two per share.  This time, GE's management stayed mum, even though they were missing estimates by over 12%.  They had to know this (or else they are totally incompetent) so why didn't they warn?  ...And, since they didn't warn, is there more bad news yet to come?  Is the second quarter also at risk...?

If their full year guidance is worth anything, then at current prices it's an OK buy.  If, however, their whole year is going to be 12% off projections, then $28 is a more reasonable price (using the current p/e of 14).  Anyway, a 12% hit for missing by 12% is pretty reasonable, and I wouldn't be in a hurry to take a position. 

New update, watch Wacovia for few days as well.  Now that they've admitted their mortgage exposure (which everyone already knew about) they may drop to a good entry point.  Again, though, don't get in a hurry.  Let it settle first.

Disclaimer:  I do not own any GE, but it is a stock I've been tracking for a couple of years. 
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Silver Creek on April 14, 2008, 16:12:51 PM
Quote from: Woolly Bugger on April 11, 2008, 10:33:31 AM
I'm in!  ;hb

Might be a little shaky for a while but I have FAITH in GE for the LONG TERM, although I'll take short term gains too!  ;hb

Any other VALUES out there? ;hb

Hope you didn't buy at $32.50. Closed at $31.75 today. The knife is still falling.
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: troutphisher on April 18, 2008, 14:15:23 PM
It's 32.73 as of 3:15 pm.

You can catch a falling knife, if you act quickly......LOL


.23/share in 7 days......keep it wool!
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Woolly Bugger on April 24, 2008, 13:02:58 PM
 :P
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: troutphisher on April 24, 2008, 13:39:02 PM
$33.33  as of 2:39pm........


Almost a buck a share!!!!!!


Your on a roll Woowe
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: phg on April 24, 2008, 14:01:35 PM
yup, looks like it was a buy at $32.50.  Actually it probably still is, although I'd wouldn't touch it today.  A sharp run-up on light volume isn't likely to stick.  I expect that it will continue to trade in this range for another week or two, or until there is some positive news to serve as a catalyst for higher valuations.  (A major drop in crude prices could do just that.)

Frankly, I don't have the stomach to be an active trader.  Too many imponderables making it too much like gambling. :P  I'm not really risk-adverse, and don't mind taking calculated risks, but pure chance just never appealed to me.
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: flatlander on April 24, 2008, 15:43:04 PM
Quote from: phg on April 24, 2008, 14:01:35 PM

Frankly, I don't have the stomach to be an active trader.  Too many imponderables making it too much like gambling. :P  I'm not really risk-adverse, and don't mind taking calculated risks, but pure chance just never appealed to me.

It's GE for goodness' sake ...he's not trading penny stocks on the pink sheets ;D  Sounds like a good buy to me Woolly.  You bought it at its 06 support.  If it busts through that then you might pull out and wait for a lower entry point.  Long term, I think GE is about as safe as it gets.  So diversified internationally.  Good luck.
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Woolly Bugger on April 28, 2008, 15:51:21 PM
Quote from: Flatlander on April 24, 2008, 15:43:04 PM
Quote from: phg on April 24, 2008, 14:01:35 PM

Frankly, I don't have the stomach to be an active trader.  Too many imponderables making it too much like gambling. :P  I'm not really risk-adverse, and don't mind taking calculated risks, but pure chance just never appealed to me.

It's GE for goodness' sake ...he's not trading penny stocks on the pink sheets ;D  Sounds like a good buy to me Woolly.  You bought it at its 06 support.  If it busts through that then you might pull out and wait for a lower entry point.  Long term, I think GE is about as safe as it gets.  So diversified internationally.  Good luck.

yeah, played it "safe" with GE when I shoulda bought AAPL at $140, closed today @ $172

5k = 6.1K 

o-o
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: phg on April 28, 2008, 19:25:32 PM
Woulda, coulda, shoulda.... o-o

Since 2003, Apple has been on a tear, but keep in mind that on Dec 28, 2007 it was at $199.83, but dropped to $119.15 by Feb. 26.  A highly volatile stock....
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Woolly Bugger on April 28, 2008, 19:39:40 PM
Quote from: phg on April 28, 2008, 19:25:32 PM
Woulda, coulda, shoulda.... o-o

Since 2003, Apple has been on a tear, but keep in mind that on Dec 28, 2007 it was at $199.83, but dropped to $119.15 by Feb. 26.  A highly volatile stock....

Hey, don't forget your talking to a former worldcom owner!
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: flatlander on April 29, 2008, 09:10:05 AM
Quote from: Woolly Bugger on April 28, 2008, 15:51:21 PM

yeah, played it "safe" with GE when I shoulda bought AAPL at $140, closed today @ $172

5k = 6.1K 

o-o

I know.  I thought about Apple long and hard as it bounced along at $120.   o-o
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Silver Creek on May 30, 2008, 10:13:57 AM
GE has been underwater (below 32.50) for a while.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GE#chart1:symbol=ge;range=3m;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Woolly Bugger on May 30, 2008, 11:39:51 AM
Quote from: Silver Creek on May 30, 2008, 10:13:57 AM
GE has been underwater (below 32.50) for a while.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GE#chart1:symbol=ge;range=3m;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined


@ 32.50 the divien yield was 3.8% now @ $30.75 it's 4.1%....

I'm still long on GE :)
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: phg on June 02, 2008, 18:16:01 PM
...and GE sets a new 52 week low.... ::)

I'm thinking that they will trade in this range until they report their next quarter.  If they beat expectations, then we may see some movement.  In the meantime, that dividend looks real attractive.
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: glassfisher on June 02, 2008, 21:38:09 PM
Quote from: phg on June 02, 2008, 18:16:01 PM
...and GE sets a new 52 week low.... ::)

I'm thinking that they will trade in this range until they report their next quarter.  If they beat expectations, then we may see some movement.  In the meantime, that dividend looks real attractive.

They should have a good qtr, the big miss last qtr was product that couldn't ship in 2Q.  In addition, they'll probably have some upside from appliances (when you sell a business you make darn sure it looks good on the books!).  I'm thinking buy now and all the way up to 32.   ;)
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Silver Creek on June 09, 2008, 09:45:40 AM
I posted a long reply about GE about a week ago but removed it because I recommended another stock instead of GE. Those of you that did get a chance to read it know that my recommendation went up since then. I don't want to be in the business of recommending stocks. However, I am a long time owner of GE.

I will just say this about GE and its dividend.

1. It is less than inflation when discounted for the taxes you will pay. So unless inflation goes down or the dividend rate goes up, buying GE for its dividend is a money losing proposition.

2. If you bought GE at 32.50 your yield is not 4.1%, it is 3.8% which is what you calculated yield based on $0.31 a quarter. I would figure your yield based on the year over year figure which is 3.6%. That dividend rate is now way below the rate of inflation even before discounting it for the taxes you will pay on it. After all GE's profit dropped 6% (http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/04/15/business/rtrcol16.php) in the last quarterly report.

3. Unless GE starts to increase profits, it cannot continue the current dividend rate without hurting GE's ability to finance expansion from its cash flow. More cash to investors means less cash available to expand internally. This means increased borrowing which means less profits in the future. Dividends are by no means guaranted when profits are decreasing.

4. Most of GE's profits come from overseas. When the dollar weakens, a stagnant profit growth in the Euro becomes increasing profits when converted into the dollar. So its profit growth recently has been basd on the increasing weakness of the dollar. Two things threaten this profit growth. First is a strengthening dollar. If that happens, GE's profits will crater. Secondly is an oil based recession in the rest of the world which makes it difficult to sell GE products.

5. If you bought at $32.50, getting back to $32.50 does not make you whole. Your break even target at current inflation rates and capital gains rates is not $32.50 but $34.00/share plus transactions cost just to come out even at one year post purchase. The longer you hold GE, the more you have to get just to stay even. GE needs to grow a minimum of 15% (the capital gains tax rate) faster than inflation to stay even with inflation.

6. If the Obama get in look for capital gains rate to go up, putting even more pressure on stocks.
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Woolly Bugger on June 09, 2008, 10:00:52 AM
bought @ $32 sold at $37 bought back @ $32.50 still ahead net $237 -- tax sheltered plan

still sucking the $30 price.... we'll see where we are in 10 yrs for me and what 56+ years for my kids... :angel:
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Silver Creek on June 12, 2008, 15:15:27 PM
GE now at $28.90, a new 52 wk low. Bernanke's comments about the threat of inflation is taking hold as are the comments of the European Central Bank's Jean-Claude Tricet. Both are talking tough on inflation raising the prospects of interest rate increases which would kill any prospects of a housing market recovery in the near future and making a true recession more probable. At this point, there almost certainly would be no interest rate drop given what Bernanke has said.

An interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve without an European Central Bank increase would serve to strenghthen the dollar versus the Euro. This would deal a double blow to GE. It would increase the cost of financing which would hurt the financial unit of GE and simultaneously deflate the value of foreign earnings. So less money coming in and the earnings from Euros is devalued vs the dollar = a double hit to earnings.

If the European Central bank responds with an interest rate increase of its own, this would keep the dollar relatively weak to the Euro BUT the increase in borrowing costs to foreign corporations would decrease the amount of products that they buy from GE. Simultaneoulsly currencies pegged to the dollar would also see borrowing costs increase and they will buy less from GE. Again a double whammy to GE earnings.

GE would be between a rock and a hard place and earnings will surely fall in either scenario unless there is an unforseen fall in oil prices which would stimulate the economy and remove the need for an interest hike.

Although the price of GE seems very attractive, if you do buy at current prices, you should protect yourself with a stop loss sell order at 15% below your buy price.
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Silver Creek on June 13, 2008, 10:44:55 AM
Latest inflation data and its impact on GE:

"The CPI is up 4.2% in the past year and has risen at a 4.9% annual pace over the past three months. Inflation has overtaken weak growth as the top concern for financial markets and for some officials at the Federal Reserve."

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/cpi-rises-06-back-surging/story.aspx?guid={AA0B7528-6E79-438F-9488-D3F38BEC5B91}&siteid=yahoomy

"In a speech Monday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said that the Fed will "strongly resist an erosion of longer-term inflation expectations." Those comments have raised expectations that the Fed's next move later this year will be to start raising interest rates."

http://www.latimes.com/news/la-fi-economy14-2008jun14,0,653996.story?track=rss

"In recent days, Fed officials have shifted their focus to inflation worries, citing pressures from relentlessly climbing energy costs, suggesting they may be preparing to raise interest rates again after a long rate-cutting campaign."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080613/bs_nm/usa_economy_prices_dc_2

The 4.2 - 4.9% CPI rate is greater than the dividend return of GE even in a tax sheltered plan.

I've personally made a similar error in the past buying IBM in the early 90's during the tenure of John Akers (http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0EKF/is_n1956_v39/ai_13720647) thinking that it was IBM, the stock of widows and millionaires. Well IBM's stock cratered and it sold on my stop loss. I later rebought thinking that IBM was an even bigger bargain. The stock continued to fall and IBM was in danger of being sold off until Lou Gerster (http://www.good2work.com/article/4043) saved the company and turned it around.

I still own IBM because of Louis Gerstner.

CEOs make a big difference. Think of Apple before Steven Jobs returned and after he returned. It is a mistake to think of investing in GE because it is GE. I invested not in GE but in Jack Welch. If you buy or bought GE recently you invested not in GE but in Jeffrey R. Immelt. His recent moves have not been pretty. The clock is ticking (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/17/business/17electric.html) on Immelt.

What is really worrisome is that GE's stock is not acting like it has hit bottom yet. Right at this moment the DOW is up almost 1%, the NASDAQ up 1.7% and all my stocks are up but GE, which is down almost .8%. We'll see how the rest of the trading session works out but for major stock like GE to be down in a rally is an indication that investors are not willing to buy GE even at it's current depressed price.
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Woolly Bugger on June 13, 2008, 11:02:48 AM
it's a good thing that I only own 1500 shares..... o-o
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Silver Creek on June 13, 2008, 14:28:39 PM
Well I'm at 4 times the risk that you are. I have 6,000 shares of GE.

GE has had 3 splits totaling 12 to 1 since I bought it. It split 2:1 in 5/94, 2:1 in 5/97 and 3:1 in 5/01. All while Jack Welch was CEO. Immelt has been CEO since 5/01 and since then GE has not split once in the first 7 years of Immelt's management while it has spit 12:1 in the last 7 years of Jack Welch's management.

Sure, it is a different business environment but Jeffrey Immelt has had enough time to prove that he is no Jack Welch. Rather than command a premium because of Welch's management, GE now sells at a discount because of the lack of faith in Immelt.

The dropping share price of GE in the face of a mini rally is a sure sign of either GE stockholders selling into a rising market or a lot of short sellers selling into the market hoping for even lower prices next week.

It takes a lot of sellers or a few sellers holding a lot of shares to move GE's stock price down in the face of a rising market. Notice that this downward movement is happening on a large volume of almost 94,000,000 shares so far compared to an average daily volume of 58,000,000 shares. GE has also hit a new 52 week low during trading.

All of these indicators are negative. My worry is what do the sellers know that I don't? Is there another shoe that is going to drop? So I am really worried when I see that kind of reverse movement in a major conglomerate that should move with the market. GE should act like a mini mutual fund with all it's diverse holdings, but it isn't and that is a bad omen.
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Silver Creek on June 13, 2008, 15:55:05 PM
Final numbers, GE up .34% to $29.15/share on almost double usual daily volume of 115,755,168 shares compared to usual volume of 58,231,400 shares. Dow up 1.37%, NASDAQ up 2.09%, and broader S&P 500 Index up 1.5%. GE could be turning the corner but the high volume and weak gain shows weakness compared to the market in general. I'm more optimistic than I was midday.
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: phg on June 13, 2008, 16:49:14 PM
What you are probably seeing is institutional investors reducing their holdings.  Right now, about 59% of GE's stock is owned by institutional investors.  Short interest in GE is fairly low, however, about 0.6% so general sentiment would seem to be that this is near the bottom.  Was GE's dept downgraded recently?  I don't recall if GE lost their AAA rating after they reported the abysmal quarter.

Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Silver Creek on June 14, 2008, 10:42:26 AM
Quote from: phg on June 13, 2008, 16:49:14 PM
What you are probably seeing is institutional investors reducing their holdings.  Right now, about 59% of GE's stock is owned by institutional investors.  Short interest in GE is fairly low, however, about 0.6% so general sentiment would seem to be that this is near the bottom.  Was GE's dept downgraded recently?  I don't recall if GE lost their AAA rating after they reported the abysmal quarter.



Actually short positions in GE have gone up (http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/06/06/short-sellers-bet-against-an-american-icon-ge/) and GE is now number 17 on the Short List (http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3030-shortint_hi_nyse-NYSE.html?mod=topnav_2_3000). Take a look at this Graph of GE Shorts. (http://finance.aol.com/company/general-electric-company/ge/nys/short-interest) It is at or above a 12 month high.

The bump in GE just before close yesterday could be due to short sellers covering their positions before the weekend. It will be interesting to see what the short position after this weekend.

I hope GE recovers but GE's bond rating does not give me any solace given what happened to Citicorp, and B of A. Even the second largest Bank in France, Societe Generale lost $7.1 billion. (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/25/business/worldbusiness/25bank-web.html?ref=business)

Only JP Morgan Chase has done relatively well having the reserves to buy Bear Sterns. I actually own quite a bit of JP Morgan Chase, or should I say Jamie Dimon (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/27/business/27wamu.html) because I believe he is the saviest CEO in banking today. Invest in people and not in corporations. When Jamie left Citicorp, that was the time to sell Citicorp, buy Bank One (http://money.cnn.com/2004/01/14/news/deals/jpmorgan_bankone/), then JP Morgan following Jamie Dimon. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jamie_Dimon) You could have known nothing about the companies, only the man and made money at every step. Even with the depressed price of JPM, it is higher than when Jamie took over the company.
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: phg on June 14, 2008, 11:20:00 AM
It's a tough call, and even tougher when you own a major position that you can't afford to liquidate.  All I can say is that, while I've considered GE several times in the past 5 years, I'm glad I didn't go for it. 
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Silver Creek on June 14, 2008, 23:49:28 PM
Quote from: troutrus on June 14, 2008, 19:04:45 PM

Sounds like one of the many Jim Cramer followers. Viva la booyah

Are you kidding? I don't listen to Jim Cramer or any other self proclaimed expert. I haven't had a stockbroker or investment advisor since 1979. For the most part local stockbrokers are useless. They get paid to push stocks that their brokerage house is underwriting or has a position in so they can sell you the stock from their holdings. They never tell you when to sell. If they are so great, what are they doing in my city instead of working on Wall Street?

My favorite books are by are Peter Lynch (One Up on Wall Street and Beating The Street), John C. Bogle (Bogle on Mutual Funds), and Robert Hagstron (The Warren Buffet Way).

The best advice was from Peter Lynch who said buy a company in a sector of the economy that is growing and buy the number 1 or number 2 company in that sector because in any business there is room for only 1 or 2 gorillas. Go back to the early years of the PC and internet and see how that would have worked for you. Microprocessors - INTC. Personal Software - MSFT, Database - ORCL, Enterprise software - ORCL or SAP, Routers - CSCO, Service - IBM, Search - YHOO/GOOG, or even recently oil - XOM. Certainly in the case of MSFT, INTC, CSCO, ORCL, IBM, and GOOG there was a dynamic leader who was personally responsible for the success of that company. Where would MSFT be without Gates, INTC without Moore, CSCO without Chambers, ORCL without Ellison, and Google without Schmidt?

And you don't have to be in on the IPO to make money. If you had bought these companies several years after they became public, you would have done very well.

Investing is rather simple.

Rule number 1 - Find a sector of the economy that is growing and buy the leading company in that sector.

Rule number 2 - Hold onto that company as long as that sector continues to grow.

Rule number 3 - go back to rule number 1.



Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Silver Creek on June 15, 2008, 14:55:23 PM
Quote from: troutrus on June 15, 2008, 06:02:34 AM
Silver,
Glad to hear you don't need any advice from the self proclaimed experts. Self proclaimed experts rarely do.


Just curious though, if you "don't listen to Cramer or any other self proclaimed expert", how is it that some of your favorite books are from Peter Lynch? :P

That's a good question.

Peter Lynch is just the opposite of a self proclaimed expert since he ran one of the most successful mutual funds, the Magellan Fund, which grew from $18 million in assets in 1977 to $14 billion in 1990. Only a few investors including Warren Buffet can claim a similar record. When he retired, Magellan Fund declined. His successor could not duplicate Lynch's sucess. I can't name any other mutual fund manager that has duplicated what Peter Lynch has done consistently over such a long time.

Secondly, reading a book that outlines sucessful investment strategies is very different than blindly buying and selling on the basis of a recommendation by an "expert." When someone studies a company and has definite criteria for why he/she thinks it will grow, he/she has the tools to measure whether that company is meeting the investor's criteria. The investor then has the tools to decide when to buy more stock or to sell. The investor makes the decision and not the expert.

Since this is fishing site, it is the differece between giving a person a fish or teaching a person to fish. To read Peter Lynch, John Bogle, and Warren Buffet is to be taught how to fish for stocks by the best in the stock fishing business. I don't consider them to be self proclaimed experts but experts in the real sense of the word.
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Silver Creek on June 16, 2008, 08:51:15 AM
I didn't know that about Lynch and it saddens me.

Nevertheless, you employ a common fallacy in your post is that you use an ad hominem argument (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_hominem) which is to attack the person rather than what he says in his books. I don't care if Lynch is a transexual crossdresser and serial murderer. What my recommendation was is to follow the advice in his book, not his personality traits.

So lets get back on point. I ask you, what part of his books do you disagree with and why is that bad investment advice?
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Silver Creek on June 16, 2008, 09:01:57 AM
Quote from: phg on June 13, 2008, 16:49:14 PM
What you are probably seeing is institutional investors reducing their holdings.  Right now, about 59% of GE's stock is owned by institutional investors.  Short interest in GE is fairly low, however, about 0.6% so general sentiment would seem to be that this is near the bottom.  Was GE's dept downgraded recently?  I don't recall if GE lost their AAA rating after they reported the abysmal quarter.



Could this be the other shoe I refered to yesterday? (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080616/general_electric_outlook.html?.v=5GE%20downgraded%20today%20by%20JP%20Morgan.%5B/url)
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: flatlander on June 16, 2008, 09:25:55 AM
All this hand-wringing over GE?!?!?   Sell it for goodness sake! 

Hurry and get out Silver...your cost basis should be low enough that you still have a decent profit and you can still take advantage of the 15% cap gains rate before Obama raises it to 28%.  SELL SELL SELL! LOL


Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Silver Creek on June 16, 2008, 14:30:57 PM
I would sell GE if I needed the cash, but I don't. I responded to this thread because I am a long time follower of GE and I commented that I thought GE at $32.50 was not the time to buy. See my comment about Catching a Falling Knife below.

I also cautioned about buying GE if it has a slight recovery, see the Dead Cat Bounce reference below. GE

I also cautioned about the weakness in GE stock on last Friday on high volumes, increasing shorts, during a rising stock market which suggested to me that there were traders that knew information that we did not. Then GE was downgraded today. So was this luck on my part? I don't think so. I have made these same mistakes myself and I've lost money on my mistakes. It was suspicious that something fishy was going on with the stock.

Quote from: Silver Creek on April 11, 2008, 12:32:03 PM
Wait on the buy order.

You never know when the stock will turn around. "Don't try to catch a falling knife" (http://www.fool.com/investing/value/2007/05/29/how-to-catch-a-falling-knife.aspx), otherwise you will get cut.

It is better to wait until the stock starts to rise again before buying but make sure that it is not a "dead cat bounce". (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_cat_bounce)


So was this quote made during a Dead Cat Bounce?

Quote from: troutphisher on April 24, 2008, 13:39:02 PM
$33.33  as of 2:39pm........


Almost a buck a share!!!!!!


Your on a roll Woowe

Take a look at this chart of GE (http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GE#chart3:symbol=ge;range=3m;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined) and check out the pattern of GE just before April 24 and what has happened since and you tell me if it is a dead cat bounce.

There can be multiple bounces so I would not buy even on the next bounce. Believe me, when GE recovers there will be plenty of time to get in. It is better to get in a little late and get out a little early rather than getting in too early and getting out too late.
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Silver Creek on June 17, 2008, 13:53:54 PM
Quote from: troutrus on June 16, 2008, 15:27:12 PM


Since I normally don't support a person that shits on those folks that are putting their lives on the line to protect his freedom to write those books, I haven't read any of them. Therefore, I don't disagree with anything in his books, I merely disagree with anyone that thinks his books are worth reading.  Call that type of thinking anything you'd like, but we also fought for my right to judge a man by his character and as such I've judged him to be a scumbag whose advice I have no interest in.
As far as I'm concerned, the dwarf tossing thing went over the line.


Troutrus,

With all due respect, from what you have said above, I believe you are unaware of the true facts.

You might want to read the actual New York Times Article on Improper Gifts (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/06/business/06fidelity.html) rather than get your "facts" from a Don McNay Blog. (http://www.donmcnay.com/content/view/355/1/) Check the "dwarf tossing" charge that you leveled at Peter Lynch, since this drove you "over the line". It turns out this happened at a bachelor party for a trader at Fidelity named Thomas Bruderman. Lynch had no connection to this private party. Unfortunately the Don McNay article that you referenced distorted the facts and inferred that Lynch was to blame.

You should also read the New York Times Summary Article (http://www.nytimes.com/2004/12/10/business/10fund.html) on the mutual funds sold to soldiers. It was not Fidelity but a company called First Command (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Command_Financial_Planning,_Inc.) which sold contracted mutual funds from Franklin Resources, Aim/Invesco, Pioneer, and Fidelity. First Command is not a Fidelity company. First Command was founded by military officers. First Command contracts were even sold at West Point by officers to their cadets. These contracts were sold with cooperation of the military, and were sold on military bases with the full knowledge of the commanders. "In 2004, the Board of Advisor's included General Anthony Zinni, the retired Commander in Chief of the United States Central Command;[5] Coast Guard Commandant Robert E. Kramek, General Lloyd "Fig" Newton, and Vice Admiral John R. Ryan, former superintendent of the Naval Academy." So the truth is that First Command was founded by and is run by a bunch of military guys. So in the vernacular of Good Will Hunting (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Will_Hunting), "How do you like them apples!" So why doesn't Don McNay trash these highly decorated officers who are the directors of First Command rather than Peter Lynch. Could it be that Lynch makes an easier target than laying the responsibility at the feet of the retired military officers of First Command?

To be completely fair you need to read the New York Times Article by Diana Henriques (http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9E05E7DB103AF933A15754C0A9629C8B63) and the National Review Rebuttal Article by Patrick A. Swan (http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/swan200407221439.asp) who is a mobilized reserve soldier serving in Baghdad.

By what level of twisted logic does Don McNay get to the point where Fidelity becomes the primary responsible party and by a further twist lay that at the foot of Peter Lynch as he did? With the true facts clarified, you might want to reconsider this statement of yours, "Call that type of thinking anything you'd like, but we also fought for my right to judge a man by his character and as such I've judged him to be a scumbag whose advice I have no interest in."

Reread the Don McNay article and you will see that the accusations follow this line of reasoning and innuendo. Lynch is vice chairman of Fidelity - Fidelity sold bad investments to soldiers (actually a lie) - therefore Lynch is to blame for every bad thing that happened at Fidelity. Again faulty logic similar to the example: An elephant is grey and warmblooded - a mouse is warmblooded and grey - both are mammals, therefore an elephant is a mouse, except all the premises in the example are true where as the secondary premise in McNay's syllogism is false.

This is a combination of the logical fallacies of Poisoning the Well (http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/poisoning-the-well.html) and Guilt by Association (http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/guilt-by-association.html). Lynch is only responsible for the gifts that he received and for which he was fined. This amounted to $16,000 over his career whereas, Bruderman who was a Fidelity trader and the person most responsible for the fines, received $450,000.00 in gifts, but you would not know it from the Don McNay hatchet job, since this would rightly place what Lynch did in the proper perspective.

By your standards, one should not have invested in GE during Jack Welch's tenure because he has loose moral standards having cheated on his wife with Harvard Business Review Editor Suzy Wetlaufer. (http://nymag.com/nymetro/news/media/features/5976/) GE also polluted the Hudson River (http://www.nrdc.org/water/pollution/hhudson.asp) during Jack Welch's term at GE.

What would be the bigger "sin", taking the monstrous amount of $16,000.00 in unauthorized gifts over a 20 year career, or cheating on a wife of 16 years? My view is that neither "sin" have anything to do with the investment advice of Peter Lynch or the performance of Jack Welch as CEO. They show personal weaknesses.

Since you presumably blame Peter Lynch for the all the sins of Fidelity for which he did not have a direct responsibility, I suppose you would also then blame Welch for the pollution of the Hudson River by GE? This then begs the question what CEOs and companies do you know of that are totally blameless in every regard and will also grow faster than the market in general?

You certainly have the right to follow whatever investment advice you want. I'm not sure if this post will or can do anything to change your mind about Lynch. I post this so that those who are in the undistributed middle can have the facts and decide on their own.

I stand by my recommendation that the four books I recommended are some of the best and easiest to read on basic investment advice so that you can avoid making bad investment decisions.

I personally try to follow this rule: "When you throw mud, you will often muddy yourself and lose a lot of ground."
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Silver Creek on June 18, 2008, 14:38:02 PM
Quote from: troutrus on June 18, 2008, 08:22:20 AM
Your suggestion that I confine my research to the New York Times article is a real laugher. Talk about an old cronies club.  :j

I personally try to follow this simple rule: "Don't piss into the wind".

I never suggested that you "confine" your research to the NYT. The reason I referred you to the NYT is that you should always check out the primary referenced material in the article you are using as the basis for your accusations. That is pretty fundamental. Since they broke the story, you should have gone to the original source of the story. If the NYT is an old cronies' club, maybe McNay shouldn't use them as the basis for his articles.

McNay writes, "It followed up on an award-winning New York Times series written by Diana Henriques. I wrote several columns about Mr. Lynch and Fidelity Investment, the company where he serves as vice chairman." This is the identical article I referred you to when I wrote, "To be completely fair you need to read the New York Times Article by Diana Henriques and the National Review Rebuttal Article by Patrick A. Swan who is a mobilized reserve soldier serving in Baghdad."

This rookie error suggests that you did not read either the original article or the rebuttal, and that you have no interest in independent thinking.

What is actually laughable is your line of reasoning, since you dismiss the NYT while referencing your guru McNay, who uses the NYT as the basis for his article. So what is it - Is NYT reliable or not? If it is, then you are wrong. If it is not then McNay is wrong. Since you rely on him, you are are wrong again.

How's it feel pissing into the wind?

Quote from: troutrus on June 18, 2008, 08:22:20 AM
  http://www.richmondregister.com/business/local_story_145235727.html



Same McNay story, different wrapper. Maybe you have another article that doesn't fail the logic test or are you a one man band?

Quote from: troutrus on June 18, 2008, 08:22:20 AM
You've made it clear that you don't care about moral character or whether a person be a transsexual or serial killer as long as they can make you some money. Good for you.

That's called hyperbole (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperbole).

I guess I need to be more concrete in my replies to you. The point is that the truth is the truth whether it is disputed by a saint or avowed to by a sinner. The truth stands on its own merits. Investment truths are valid irregardless of who states them. They are to be judged on the their own merits and not on your personal perception of the merits who says them. Hence the hyperbole to drive this point home but obviously you didn't get it the first time. You also don't understand the Guilt by Association Fallacy (http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/guilt-by-association.html) since you keep repeating it.

BTW, I'm still waiting for your list of companies and CEOs that pass your morality test.

List em and we'll see how they do in this market.
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Silver Creek on June 18, 2008, 21:13:16 PM
1. Yes.

2. Yes, but it has not been shown that any business was exchanged for these "gifts. Lynch did admit that the gifts were above the level allowed by Fidelity.

3. Fishing Yes

Now you answer my questions.

1. Is there any proof Lynch had any direct envolvement with the Destiny I or II contracts and was Peter Lynch a part time or full time vice-chairman of Fidelity during this period?

2. a. Of the $1,200,000.00 Fidelity agents received from brokerage firms, how much did Lynch receive?
   b. Was Peter Lynch envolved in the "dwarf tossing" you accused him of?

3. Name just one company that you would buy now that you are positive has never paid a fine or settled a lawsuit. We'll see how it does.

How's your fishing been?
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: troutrus on June 18, 2008, 21:13:54 PM
I'm out of this. Getting a little too personal for my liking. Besides, you're just too smart for me, even if you do use words such as irregardless. ???

How 'bout a fishing report from cheeseland?
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Silver Creek on June 18, 2008, 21:21:20 PM
Me too. I'm going fishing tomorrow.

Fishing has been a bit slow. Too  much rain but the fish have been healthy.

Here's a nice piece of water that I am going to go to tomorrow.

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Caught this guy a week ago

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Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: troutrus on June 19, 2008, 06:39:50 AM
Nice looking water and a beautiful fish.  0--0
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Silver Creek on September 11, 2008, 18:35:45 PM
Quote from: Silver Creek on June 09, 2008, 09:45:40 AM
I posted a long reply about GE about a week ago but removed it because I recommended another stock instead of GE. Those of you that did get a chance to read it know that my recommendation went up since then.

In hard economic times you need defensive rather than offensive stocks. WMT is the stock I recommended but then erased back in early June. I bought even earlier and I'm up almost a third in WMT.

GE (http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GE#chart1:symbol=ge;range=6m;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined) vs WMT (http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=WMT#chart1:symbol=wmt;range=6m;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined) performance charts for the last 6 months.

I resurrected this thread because GE is now at the point where it is close to a buy IMHO. I wouldn't have bought at $32.50 but 3 months later at $28.16, it is a good value play if you have patience for it to recover. GE still faces the problem of an increasing value of the dollar I predicted would happen back on Jun 12th. The dollar began its rise just about a month later.

Quote from: Silver Creek on June 12, 2008, 15:15:27 PM
GE now at $28.90, a new 52 wk low. Bernanke's comments about the threat of inflation is taking hold as are the comments of the European Central Bank's Jean-Claude Tricet. Both are talking tough on inflation raising the prospects of interest rate increases which would kill any prospects of a housing market recovery in the near future and making a true recession more probable. At this point, there almost certainly would be no interest rate drop given what Bernanke has said.

An interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve without an European Central Bank increase would serve to strengthen the dollar versus the Euro. This would deal a double blow to GE. It would increase the cost of financing which would hurt the financial unit of GE and simultaneously deflate the value of foreign earnings. So less money coming in and the earnings from Euros is devalued vs the dollar = a double hit to earnings.

If the European Central bank responds with an interest rate increase of its own, this would keep the dollar relatively weak to the Euro BUT the increase in borrowing costs to foreign corporations would decrease the amount of products that they buy from GE. Simultaneously currencies pegged to the dollar would also see borrowing costs increase and they will buy less from GE. Again a double whammy to GE earnings.

GE would be between a rock and a hard place and earnings will surely fall in either scenario unless there is an unforeseen fall in oil prices which would stimulate the economy and remove the need for an interest hike.

Although the price of GE seems very attractive, if you do buy at current prices, you should protect yourself with a stop loss sell order at 15% below your buy price.

See the value of the dollar vs the pound (http://www.x-rates.com/d/GBP/USD/graph120.html) and the dollar vs the euro (http://www.x-rates.com/d/EUR/USD/graph120.html).

Both England and Europe are entering a recession. We are further along in our economic cycle and will recover first. They will have to cut interest rates which will strengthen the dollar further. The rise in the value of the dollar vs the pound and the euro is in anticipation of these rate cuts.

GE will have difficulty meeting its next earnings target because of the reversal in currency valuations as overseas earnings of pounds and euros are repatriated into dollars.

That is why you will need to be patient if you buy GE now.
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Silver Creek on September 12, 2008, 11:32:21 AM
GE is cratering today. I suspect someone leaked that GE will miss earnings badly for this quarter.

Even I'm surprised. I would have thought that GE would have issued a warning before bad news leaked out. Regular investors do not like to be surprised when the big boys get the news first, allowing then to dump shares.
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: phg on September 12, 2008, 18:36:17 PM
I was thinking about this thread the other day, but didn't think it was worth reviving for the smartaleck remark I was going to make.  GE is still wallowing, as is most of the rest of the market.  It just can't seem to find any direction. :-\
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Woolly Bugger on September 17, 2008, 10:55:27 AM
 ::)


ugh... wait a sec...

AAPL -6.93
GE -2.14
XOM -1.35
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: flatlander on September 17, 2008, 11:24:50 AM
Quote from: phg on September 12, 2008, 18:36:17 PM
It just can't seem to find any direction. :-\

LOL...what screen are you watching PHG!  Looks like we're heading in the direction of capitulation.
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Silver Creek on September 19, 2008, 10:04:29 AM
Only one thing is certain, GE is a better buy today than it was at $32.50. What is unknown is whether it will been seen as a good buy.

I still think Walmart is a still better buy. The odds of a recession have increased and in recessions, consumers pinch pennies. Walmart also wants to get into banking and no time is better than this to pick up a bank cheaply.

GE has gotten a better bounce off of the bottom because it fell harder. Smart investing is assessing risk vs reward. You may make more in GE if you buy now, but there is a greater risk because we don't know what exposure GE  Finance (GE Commercial Finance and GE Money) has to the morgage crisis. GE Finance provides 50% of GE's profit.

You can look at GE as a manufacturing conglomerate that owns a bank or a bank that owns manufacturing.

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/content/options+update+general+electric+bears+prompt+surge+in+put+volume+/observations.aspx?ID=87836

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D938OTOG1.htm

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200809151656DOWJONESDJONLINE000728_FORTUNE5.htm



Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Silver Creek on September 25, 2008, 11:14:08 AM
Quote from: Silver Creek on September 12, 2008, 11:32:21 AM
GE is cratering today. I suspect someone leaked that GE will miss earnings badly for this quarter.

Even I'm surprised. I would have thought that GE would have issued a warning before bad news leaked out. Regular investors do not like to be surprised when the big boys get the news first, allowing then to dump shares.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/26/business/26electric.htm
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Trout Maharishi on September 25, 2008, 11:41:55 AM
Yea, no leaks mean the MF's can short sell or naked sell it and make a couple more million >:D
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: troutrus on October 01, 2008, 15:20:31 PM
Here's a guy that knows how to deal with a downturn.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081001/ge_buffett_investment.html
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Silver Creek on October 01, 2008, 16:11:14 PM
If you have 3 billion to invest you too can get preferred stock paying 10% plus warrants to buy stock at below the current price.

Anybody noticed that GE not only suspended it's stock buyback, but now has sold stock to raise money. It's pretty obvious that GE doesn't have the money to even buy its stock back at a depressed price.

Here's what I wrote about GE on another BB on why they need money.

"......To show how this crisis is affecting even the best companies in the US, consider what is happening to GE. GE has a triple AAA financial rating. They borrow money on the short term markets. These notes or "commercial paper" are short term loans designed for temporary borrowing for periods as short as a month. Because of the short term of the loans there is very little risk for the lender and the rates for a company like GE are normally very low. These short term notes are what makes the economy move, and without them, money cannot flow to where it is needed. It is the blood of our economy.

For GE 18% of their borrowing is on commercial paper. The cost of borrowing has increases so much that at current rates, it will cost GE an extra 360 million dollars a year in interest costs to finance just 18% of their lowest cost borrowing. This is 360 million dollars that cannot be paid out to their workers, to expand thier business, or pay out as dividends.

What is happening to their long term cost? Well that is even worse. Those bonds are going for a 10% yield on the market and bond traders are holding out for a 15% yield. For GE to borrow on new bonds to replace the ones that are maturing, they will have to pay the going rate which is above 10% and rising to 15%. That means that even GE, with the highest and safest rating, is being closed out from borrowing. Their costs increase even without new borrowing because they have to refinance old bonds with new."

So why did GE give prefered stock at a 10% yield? Because it is cheaper than the commercial market.

Buffet thought GE was not a good buy at $32.50 but he took warrants at a strike price of $22.25. Lets hope those warrants land up in the money, otherwise we are all screwed.






Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: phg on October 03, 2008, 07:31:28 AM
...so is it a buy yet at $21.50?   >:D

Only time will tell, of course, but this market sure is baffling. 
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Woolly Bugger on October 03, 2008, 07:58:10 AM
Quote from: phg on October 03, 2008, 07:31:28 AM
...so is it a buy yet at $21.50?   >:D

Only time will tell, of course, but this market sure is baffling. 

Buffet bet $3 Billion that it is...

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/02/business/02electric.html


Just be thankful you didn't invest in Wachovia or Leeman or AIG
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Silver Creek on October 18, 2008, 17:50:24 PM
Quote from: Woolly Bugger on October 03, 2008, 07:58:10 AM
Quote from: phg on October 03, 2008, 07:31:28 AM
...so is it a buy yet at $21.50?   >:D

Only time will tell, of course, but this market sure is baffling. 

Buffet bet $3 Billion that it is...

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/02/business/02electric.html



Buffet got preferred stock paying 10% plus warrants. Big difference from regular stock. That 10% he gets comes off of your dividend. The warrants are the icing. IF they end up inthe money, your stock gets diluted by Buffet acting on the warrants.

Basically, Buffet loaned GE 3 billion backed up by preferred stock, with a 10% loan redemption fee (the 10% premium to buy back the preferred shares) and warrants to boot.

That's one of the reasons I bought BRKB.

The fact that GE suspended its stock buy back program, when its stock is soooo cheap is very bearish for GE investors in the short term. They are not only not buying back stock, they are going in reverse by issuing stock ----> dilution of stock value.

"G.E. is selling $3 billion of preferred stock in a private offering to Mr. Buffett's company, Berkshire Hathaway. The preferred stock pays dividend of 10 percent, and G.E. can purchase the shares back from Mr. Buffett after three years by paying a 10 percent premium, or $3.3 billion.

But the real payoff for Mr. Buffett will come if G.E.'s battered stock rebounds. As part of the financing, Berkshire Hathaway is receiving warrants to purchase $3 billion of G.E. common stock for $22.25 a share, at any time over the next five years."
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: phg on December 14, 2010, 18:56:49 PM
With it's stock price approaching $18?  Yeah, things seem to be looking up for GE.  Makes you wish you'd had enough confidence to buy it when it was running $11-$12, though, doesn't it?   ;D

Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: flatlander on December 15, 2010, 06:33:59 AM
Quote from: phg on December 14, 2010, 18:56:49 PM
With it's stock price approaching $18?  Yeah, things seem to be looking up for GE.  Makes you wish you'd had enough confidence to buy it when it was running $11-$12, though, doesn't it?   ;D

I added more when it was at $6-$7...sold it when it doubled though.  Still have a core long position in it.  Wish I'd sold it when it was in the $60's though b'; b'; b';. 
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Silver Creek on December 15, 2010, 17:21:42 PM
My last purchase was BP @$37.56. It closed today at $44.59, up a hair over 18% in the 6 months since I bought it. Many were predicting bankrupcy for BP but they were the 3rd largest oil company at the time of the spill just behind Exxon and Shell. Their net profits (http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/set_branch/STAGING/common_assets/downloads/pdf/ara_2007_annual_report_and_accounts.pdf) in 2005, 2006, and 2007 averaged over 20 billion each year.

I thought BP was cheap after everyone dumped the stock because of the spill. For me it was a low risk gamble even if the cost of the spill came in over $20 billion. Now with oil at close to $90/bbl it is even a safer bet.
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: ASUfisherman on December 16, 2010, 10:05:53 AM
Standard and Poors gave this stock 4 stars with a BUY recommendation at the mkt opening price of $17.62 on Monday.  Their 12 month target price on GE is $20.  This is by no means a stock you will make money on in the short term.  Both the 50 and 200 day moving average on this stock have a bullish trend, and I could definitely see the possibility of a trend reversal in the next few weeks.  Todays opening price of $17.50 would probably be a decent LT position on this stock, and if a trend reversal happens, I would average down to somewhere around $17. 

I am using GE as a hedge against some higher risk plays in the lithium ion battery market.  This is a market that will certainly be productive over the next few years, the problem is finding a company that will be able to sustain the amount of debt necessary to get through the next few years without earning a profit.  Some of the stocks I am playing in this market are AONE, VLNC, and HEV.  All have the potential to blow up over the next few years, if they can figure out a way to cut the cost of a battery by 1/2. 

GE is and will continue to be a major player in this market.  They also have the capital needed to get through the start up years of a new industry.  So while i'll probably make and lose a lot on some of the higher risk plays, I can see slow steady growth out of GE.  This is certainly not a $30 stock, but it could be 2-3years down the road.  It is a safe bet though, and if you buy and see some resistance, average down to get the position you want.
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Silver Creek on September 13, 2017, 14:53:14 PM
Why am I replying to an old post? Because it is almost the 10 year retrospective of the GE stock discussion.

Quote from: Woolly Bugger on June 09, 2008, 10:00:52 AM
bought @ $32 sold at $37 bought back @ $32.50 still ahead net $237 -- tax sheltered plan

still sucking the $30 price.... we'll see where we are in 10 yrs for me and what 56+ years for my kids... :angel:


It is not quite 10 years but pretty close and GE is not doing well. It is at $24.13 right now. I got out last week. I finally had enough.

Quote from: Silver Creek on June 14, 2008, 23:49:28 PM

Investing is rather simple.

Rule number 1 - Find a sector of the economy that is growing and buy the leading company in that sector.

Rule number 2 - Hold onto that company as long as that sector continues to grow.

Rule number 3 - go back to rule number 1.


Since my last post I have bought only 3 stocks using the criteria I posted above almost 10 years ago. I bought APPL @ $68.497, now at $158.96; AMZN @ $822.60, now at $989.35; and BABA @ $106.141, now at $178.42. I am not a trader. I bought BABA on 9/18/2014. Still a 68% gain is just under 2 years is pretty good. I am not recommending these companies to anyone, just reporting what I have done.

Quote from: Silver Creek on June 09, 2008, 09:45:40 AM
I posted a long reply about GE about a week ago but removed it because I recommended another stock instead of GE. Those of you that did get a chance to read it know that my recommendation went up since then. I don't want to be in the business of recommending stocks.

There has been enough time so I can reveal the stock I recommended. It was JPM based on Jamie Dimon's management of that company. It turns out that JPM was the only major bank that came out relatively unscathed during the mortgage crisis and they helped the government by buying up Bear Sterns Brokers and Washington Mutual on the cheap in 2008/2009. JPM stock sold for $35.05 on June 27, 2008. It is at $91.05 (160% gain) right now. JPM pays a dividend of $1.96/share which is a 5.6% yield based on my cost of $35.05/share.
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Woolly Bugger on September 13, 2017, 14:55:20 PM
I bought NVDA @ 20.97 now 170.34! 712%  176.35! 741% -0- $191.05 811%  y;

I still have 2000 shares of GE up 63% but I'm crying... b';  b';

I bought BA at 119 now 241.93 up 102% /'/

APPL @ 98 up 62% <-;:

Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: BRFFF on October 30, 2018, 07:28:35 AM
General Electric shares rose 1.4 percent after the company slashed its quarterly dividend to just a penny a share, a bold move investors took to mean new CEO Larry Culp would take dramatic action to turn around the fallen blue chip.




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Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Big J on October 30, 2018, 08:18:30 AM
https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/30/business/ge-investigation-justice-sec/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/30/business/ge-investigation-justice-sec/index.html)


Might want to wait a little longer to buy.  Stock prices will be dropping even more.....
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Woolly Bugger on November 09, 2018, 16:06:01 PM

fukiety fuk fuk......


one analyst has a price target of $6.00
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: troutrus on November 12, 2018, 12:15:34 PM
Ah Ha! Been trying for the last hour to remember which board it was with the GE discussion from 10 years back. Was curious to find this old post. Seems that some of the old forums have folded and other still show me as being banned.  ;D  I have no skin in the game, but with GE in the news, was curious to find the old thread. Hope none of you folks were hurt too bad. If so and you're young, you have time to make it back. If old (like me) don't sweat it, 'cuse if you didn't spend it by now, you most likely didn't need it anyway.

Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Big J on November 12, 2018, 12:29:16 PM
GE will come back, but I don't think they are done declining yet.  A lot of big questions still lingering.  Ride it out Bugger.  I may get into GE if anything positive news wise can come out of GE and the investigation doesn't sink them completely. 
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Woolly Bugger on November 12, 2018, 19:13:07 PM
fortunately I've taken all of those dividends and invested in other opportunities over the years... and was up  9.32% YTD including GE before the selloff today!  :banana026:
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Silver Creek on November 14, 2018, 10:45:23 AM
GE is dead money.

I sold at 23.77. My cost was $5.23 since I bought it back in 1990. Since then it split 2:1 in 1994, 2:1 in 1997 and then 3:1 in 2000 totaling a 12:1 split and dropping my cost to 5.23. All my gains are long Term Capital Gains.

The problem with buying GE in a retirement fund is that at the time this thread was created, GE we having financial problems as I noted in previous posts. So when GE continued to go down, the losses are not tax deductible.

There is a psychological element that prevents investors from taking loses in retirement funds because those losses are not tax deductible. That is why it is so hard to sell for a loss in a retirement fund. So decisions are made based on emotion and not on the financials of the situation. This is a form of confirmation bias, that prevents the investor from considering evidence that their decision was incorrect. The way to prevent following a stock to zero is to set a stop loss at the time the stock is bought. My stop loss on risky stocks is a 15% below the purchase price.

When I consider a stock a risky bet, and buying a falling stock with poor fundamentals is a risky bet; set a stop loss to protect yourself from following the stock to zero.

Retirement funds should be for safer bets like index funds that are not tied to a single stock. The restro-spectascope is 100% correct but it can provide a valuable lesson. On April 11, 2000, the broad based VTSMX (Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund) was at 32.16. Yesterday on November 3, 2018 it was 67.74. This is a gain of 35.58 which is gain of 110.6% The "safer" VFINX (Vanguard S&P 500 Index Fund) was at 138.32 on  April 11, 2000 and at 261.86 on November 3, 2018. This is a gain of 89.3%. These gains are despite the 50% loss in the Dow from 2007 to 2009. This is the reason that over long periods of time stock indexes are the best retirement investment vehicle for most people.

That continues to be my opinion and I'm sticking with it.

BTW, there is a new book out by Annie Duke, a former champion professional poker player that everyone should read who is interested in the psychology making good decisions. It is called "Thinking in Bets". Annie Duke has a Ph.D in psychology. I give the book 5 stars

https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Bets-Making-Smarter-Decisions-ebook/dp/B074DG9LQF
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: troutrus on August 15, 2019, 17:52:26 PM
Hope this isn't true. Hate to see one of America's great companies go down in scandal and disgrace.  Seems as though many of todays execs must have taken their business ethics and corporate responsibility classes at Trump University.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/harry-markopolos-on-general-electric-fraud-claim-185657968.html
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Woolly Bugger on August 16, 2019, 05:19:39 AM
https://apple.news/AltbryYVgRKqMQhQn1wTwBg


CNBC's Morgan Brennan reports GE CEO Larry Culp has bought 252,000 shares of the company's stock.
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Mudwall Gatewood 3.0 on August 16, 2019, 07:57:54 AM
I see where Arctic Umiaq Linem of Greenland is acquiring GE.  After we purchase Greenland, GE will again be ours.   
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Silver Creek on August 16, 2019, 09:10:54 AM
I am not giving investment advice. I am just reporting that my last buy was AMT, American Tower Corporation.

AMT builds and owns communication towers all over the world. With 5G cell technology requiring cell towers closer together, there will be a need for more cell towers all over the world. I believe that this means AMT has a path to growth.
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Woolly Bugger on August 16, 2019, 11:17:52 AM
https://apple.news/AUW4zpNO2T5aPHZefG81NfQ

Analyst says GE stock recovering because Madoff whistleblower fraud allegations are baseless
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Silver Creek on August 23, 2019, 10:04:17 AM
Quote from: Silver Creek on June 14, 2008, 10:42:26 AMI hope GE recovers but GE's bond rating does not give me any solace given what happened to Citicorp, and B of A. Even the second largest Bank in France, Societe Generale lost $7.1 billion. (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/25/business/worldbusiness/25bank-web.html?ref=business)

Only JP Morgan Chase has done relatively well having the reserves to buy Bear Sterns. I actually own quite a bit of JP Morgan Chase, or should I say Jamie Dimon (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/27/business/27wamu.html) because I believe he is the saviest CEO in banking today. Invest in people and not in corporations. When Jamie left Citicorp, that was the time to sell Citicorp, buy Bank One (http://money.cnn.com/2004/01/14/news/deals/jpmorgan_bankone/), then JP Morgan following Jamie Dimon. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jamie_Dimon) You could have known nothing about the companies, only the man and made money at every step. Even with the depressed price of JPM, it is higher than when Jamie took over the company.

Back in June 14th 2008, about 11 years ago, I said I invested in Jamie Dimon of JPM. Let's do a check up on how Jamie did for JPM shareholders. It was about $40 and now it is about $108.50. That is 270% in 11 years and that does not include the dividends that it paid me over those years.

According to Morningstar, the total "dividend" yield over the last 5 years has been 5.74%

https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/jpm/dividends
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Big J on October 09, 2020, 13:32:42 PM
Now might be a good time to buy GE,  jus sayin. 
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Woolly Bugger on October 09, 2020, 13:52:09 PM
I've been racking it up with my MAAN stocks

Microsoft
Apple
Amazon
Nvidia

GE was a buy at $6.00  d:b
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Big J on October 09, 2020, 13:59:24 PM
Quote from: Woolly Bugger on October 09, 2020, 13:52:09 PMI've been racking it up with my MAAN stocks

Microsoft
Apple
Amazon
Nvidia

GE was a buy at $6.00  d:b

I dumped some money into Carnival Corp, US Foods Holding, and Delta a few weeks ago.  All those should be good long term.  Just put some money into GE today.
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: troutrus on October 10, 2020, 08:13:20 AM
Since we're talking gambling here, I'm taking VT and the points (+4) vs UNC. One way or another by 4 pm I'll know how it went. 🏈🏈🏈
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Onslow on October 10, 2020, 08:24:23 AM
Quote from: troutrus on October 10, 2020, 08:13:20 AMSince we're talking gambling here, I'm taking VT and the points (+4) vs UNC. One way or another by 4 pm I'll know how it went. 🏈🏈🏈

Blah blah blah sports.  (-s
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: troutrus on October 10, 2020, 13:29:30 PM
Oops! Wish Ida seen this bit of info earlier.

https://247sports.com/college/virginia-tech/Article/Virginia-Tech-football-inactive-list-against-North-Carolina-Tar-Heels-152694994/
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Big J on October 11, 2020, 06:17:17 AM
Quote from: troutrus on October 10, 2020, 13:29:30 PMOops! Wish Ida seen this bit of info earlier.

https://247sports.com/college/virginia-tech/Article/Virginia-Tech-football-inactive-list-against-North-Carolina-Tar-Heels-152694994/

Never bet on VT  :laugh:
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Mudwall Gatewood 3.0 on October 11, 2020, 07:42:14 AM
Quote from: Big J on October 11, 2020, 06:17:17 AM
Quote from: troutrus on October 10, 2020, 13:29:30 PMOops! Wish Ida seen this bit of info earlier.

https://247sports.com/college/virginia-tech/Article/Virginia-Tech-football-inactive-list-against-North-Carolina-Tar-Heels-152694994/

Never bet on VT  :laugh:


Honestly, it was one of the better games VT has ever played, and under the unusual circumstances.

The game situation was like placing me behind a desk doing Big J's job because I can add and subtract and having Big J IDing mayflies looking through a microscope because he can see and has seen a handful of mayflies in his life. 

https://roanoke.com/sports/college/va_tech/tech-coaches-tried-everything-they-could-to-shore-up-struggling-secondary-run-defense-against-unc/article_3f237154-0b80-11eb-9d9e-f7442780a5b8.html
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Silver Creek on July 29, 2021, 20:06:19 PM
Quote from: Woolly Bugger on October 09, 2020, 13:52:09 PMI've been racking it up with my MAAN stocks

Microsoft
Apple
Amazon
Nvidia


Great Stocks, I have all of them as well as AMD, INTC, GOOG, GOOGL.

I bought MSFT in 1994.  It has split 2:1 4 times since I bought it. So I have 16 shares for every share I bought and my cost went down $3.23/share. Then MSFT also declared a special bonus dividend distribution in 2004 of $3/share so my cost per share is now 23 Cents!!!!

https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/dividends-and-stock-history.aspx
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Dougfish on July 29, 2021, 20:20:20 PM
Nice alarm clock you have.
Have a glass of milk.
Nighty night.
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Big J on May 18, 2022, 14:04:43 PM
DOW today be like
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Not sure what Bossman did with last stock market thread but just wanted to leave this here.  Hope you old farts moved investments over to some low risk low interest crap.  I'm young and riding this one out. 

On another note, hope no one owned any terra  :o
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: driver on May 26, 2022, 17:40:03 PM
The market has had a few better days since this post. But my butthole still hurts.
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Silver Creek on December 08, 2022, 10:05:11 AM
A New York Times editorial on GE today reminded me of this thread back in 2008 on investing in GE. I recommended against it at the time.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/07/opinion/general-electric-breakup-downfall.html

GE did a reverse 1 for 8 stock split on 7-30-2021. So 1 current share of GE stock now should be worth 8 times the share bought at $32.50 on the OP's original post back on 2008. A share of GE should now be $260 (8 X $32.50).

GE closed at $86 last night. That is a loss of 67% and that does not even consider the loss due to inflation.
 
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Woolly Bugger on December 08, 2022, 11:06:00 AM
I still have some GE  :Dance


"Trying to predict the future is a mug's game. But increasingly it's a game we all have to play because the world is changing so fast, and we need to have some sort of idea of what the future's actually going to be like because we are going to have to live there, probably next week."

— Douglas Adams, "The Salmon of Doubt: Hitchhiking the Galaxy One Last Time" (2002)
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Woolly Bugger on December 10, 2022, 07:12:46 AM
https://www.proxydocs.com/branding/966744/2022/10/70D6AD83-B5C2-47A6-89A7-67889967ADCF.jpg

Bottom line 1:3

478/3 = 159 shares of GE Healthcare
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Woolly Bugger on March 09, 2023, 10:09:48 AM
Trending: GE Backs Its Guidance Call, Shares Open Near 5-Year High
Mentioned:   GE
9:47 ET -- General Electric Co. is one of the most mentioned companies in the U.S. across all news items in the last 12 hours, according to Factiva data. The aerospace, power and renewable energy company reiterated at an investor conference that it expects 2023 adjusted earnings per share of $1.60 to $2.00 and organic revenue growth in the high-single-digit percentage range. GE shares were up 5.1% at $94.45 just after market open Thursday, near a five-year high. Dow Jones & Co. owns Factiva. (susan.solan@wsj.com)
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Trout Maharishi on March 09, 2023, 12:37:32 PM
Glad it's working out for you. I have a friend that sold medical equipment for them for years, he says he thinks GE's refocusing on medical products is a good decision. Energy, mining, and cash is about all I'm interested in now days.
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Woolly Bugger on March 09, 2023, 13:27:59 PM
Quote from: Trout Maharishi on March 09, 2023, 12:37:32 PMGlad it's working out for you. I have a friend that sold medical equipment for them for years, he says he think GE's refocusing on medical products is a good decision. Energy, mining, and cash is about all I'm interested in now days.

With the spin off of GEHC (up 47%) I've made up a lot a ground
Title: Re: Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???
Post by: Trout Maharishi on April 20, 2023, 23:58:42 PM
Quote from: Woolly Bugger on March 09, 2023, 13:27:59 PM
Quote from: Trout Maharishi on March 09, 2023, 12:37:32 PMGlad it's working out for you. I have a friend that sold medical equipment for them for years, he says he think GE's refocusing on medical products is a good decision. Energy, mining, and cash is about all I'm interested in now days.

With the spin off of GEHC (up 47%) I've made up a lot a ground

Went over $100 today. You should be closing fast at this point.