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Hmmm.. GE a good buy @ $32.50???

Started by Woolly Bugger, April 11, 2008, 11:33:31 am

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Silver Creek

My last purchase was BP @$37.56. It closed today at $44.59, up a hair over 18% in the 6 months since I bought it. Many were predicting bankrupcy for BP but they were the 3rd largest oil company at the time of the spill just behind Exxon and Shell. Their net profits in 2005, 2006, and 2007 averaged over 20 billion each year.

I thought BP was cheap after everyone dumped the stock because of the spill. For me it was a low risk gamble even if the cost of the spill came in over $20 billion. Now with oil at close to $90/bbl it is even a safer bet.



"Discovery consists of seeing what everybody has seen and thinking what nobody has thought"..........Szent-Gyorgy


Standard and Poors gave this stock 4 stars with a BUY recommendation at the mkt opening price of $17.62 on Monday.  Their 12 month target price on GE is $20.  This is by no means a stock you will make money on in the short term.  Both the 50 and 200 day moving average on this stock have a bullish trend, and I could definitely see the possibility of a trend reversal in the next few weeks.  Todays opening price of $17.50 would probably be a decent LT position on this stock, and if a trend reversal happens, I would average down to somewhere around $17. 

I am using GE as a hedge against some higher risk plays in the lithium ion battery market.  This is a market that will certainly be productive over the next few years, the problem is finding a company that will be able to sustain the amount of debt necessary to get through the next few years without earning a profit.  Some of the stocks I am playing in this market are AONE, VLNC, and HEV.  All have the potential to blow up over the next few years, if they can figure out a way to cut the cost of a battery by 1/2. 

GE is and will continue to be a major player in this market.  They also have the capital needed to get through the start up years of a new industry.  So while i'll probably make and lose a lot on some of the higher risk plays, I can see slow steady growth out of GE.  This is certainly not a $30 stock, but it could be 2-3years down the road.  It is a safe bet though, and if you buy and see some resistance, average down to get the position you want.
Guitars, Whiskey, Guns, and Knives

Silver Creek

Why am I replying to an old post? Because it is almost the 10 year retrospective of the GE stock discussion.

Quote from: Woolly Bugger on June 09, 2008, 11:00:52 am
bought @ $32 sold at $37 bought back @ $32.50 still ahead net $237 -- tax sheltered plan

still sucking the $30 price.... we'll see where we are in 10 yrs for me and what 56+ years for my kids... :angel:

It is not quite 10 years but pretty close and GE is not doing well. It is at $24.13 right now. I got out last week. I finally had enough.

Quote from: Silver Creek on June 15, 2008, 00:49:28 am

Investing is rather simple.

Rule number 1 - Find a sector of the economy that is growing and buy the leading company in that sector.

Rule number 2 - Hold onto that company as long as that sector continues to grow.

Rule number 3 - go back to rule number 1.

Since my last post I have bought only 3 stocks using the criteria I posted above almost 10 years ago. I bought APPL @ $68.497, now at $158.96; AMZN @ $822.60, now at $989.35; and BABA @ $106.141, now at $178.42. I am not a trader. I bought BABA on 9/18/2014. Still a 68% gain is just under 2 years is pretty good. I am not recommending these companies to anyone, just reporting what I have done.

Quote from: Silver Creek on June 09, 2008, 10:45:40 am
I posted a long reply about GE about a week ago but removed it because I recommended another stock instead of GE. Those of you that did get a chance to read it know that my recommendation went up since then. I don't want to be in the business of recommending stocks.

There has been enough time so I can reveal the stock I recommended. It was JPM based on Jamie Dimon's management of that company. It turns out that JPM was the only major bank that came out relatively unscathed during the mortgage crisis and they helped the government by buying up Bear Sterns Brokers and Washington Mutual on the cheap in 2008/2009. JPM stock sold for $35.05 on June 27, 2008. It is at $91.05 (160% gain) right now. JPM pays a dividend of $1.96/share which is a 5.6% yield based on my cost of $35.05/share.



"Discovery consists of seeing what everybody has seen and thinking what nobody has thought"..........Szent-Gyorgy

Woolly Bugger

September 13, 2017, 15:55:20 pm #63 Last Edit: September 18, 2017, 14:00:26 pm by Woolly Bugger
I bought NVDA @ 20.97 now 170.34! 712%  176.35! 741% -0- $191.05 811%  y;

I still have 2000 shares of GE up 63% but I'm crying... b';  b';

I bought BA at 119 now 241.93 up 102% /'/

APPL @ 98 up 62% <-;:

ex - I'm not going to live with you through one more fishing season!”

me -There's a season?


General Electric shares rose 1.4 percent after the company slashed its quarterly dividend to just a penny a share, a bold move investors took to mean new CEO Larry Culp would take dramatic action to turn around the fallen blue chip.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Big J

October 30, 2018, 09:18:30 am #65 Last Edit: October 30, 2018, 09:20:10 am by Big J

Might want to wait a little longer to buy.  Stock prices will be dropping even more.....
"It is good to have an end to journey toward; but it is the journey that matters, in the end." Hemingway

Woolly Bugger

fukiety fuk fuk......

one analyst has a price target of $6.00
ex - I'm not going to live with you through one more fishing season!”

me -There's a season?


Ah Ha! Been trying for the last hour to remember which board it was with the GE discussion from 10 years back. Was curious to find this old post. Seems that some of the old forums have folded and other still show me as being banned.  ;D  I have no skin in the game, but with GE in the news, was curious to find the old thread. Hope none of you folks were hurt too bad. If so and you're young, you have time to make it back. If old (like me) don't sweat it, 'cuse if you didn't spend it by now, you most likely didn't need it anyway.

Big J

GE will come back, but I don't think they are done declining yet.  A lot of big questions still lingering.  Ride it out Bugger.  I may get into GE if anything positive news wise can come out of GE and the investigation doesn't sink them completely. 
"It is good to have an end to journey toward; but it is the journey that matters, in the end." Hemingway

Woolly Bugger

fortunately I've taken all of those dividends and invested in other opportunities over the years... and was up  9.32% YTD including GE before the selloff today!  :banana026:
ex - I'm not going to live with you through one more fishing season!”

me -There's a season?

Silver Creek

GE is dead money.

I sold at 23.77. My cost was $5.23 since I bought it back in 1990. Since then it split 2:1 in 1994, 2:1 in 1997 and then 3:1 in 2000 totaling a 12:1 split and dropping my cost to 5.23. All my gains are long Term Capital Gains.

The problem with buying GE in a retirement fund is that at the time this thread was created, GE we having financial problems as I noted in previous posts. So when GE continued to go down, the losses are not tax deductible.

There is a psychological element that prevents investors from taking loses in retirement funds because those losses are not tax deductible. That is why it is so hard to sell for a loss in a retirement fund. So decisions are made based on emotion and not on the financials of the situation. This is a form of confirmation bias, that prevents the investor from considering evidence that their decision was incorrect. The way to prevent following a stock to zero is to set a stop loss at the time the stock is bought. My stop loss on risky stocks is a 15% below the purchase price.

When I consider a stock a risky bet, and buying a falling stock with poor fundamentals is a risky bet; set a stop loss to protect yourself from following the stock to zero.

Retirement funds should be for safer bets like index funds that are not tied to a single stock. The restro-spectascope is 100% correct but it can provide a valuable lesson. On April 11, 2000, the broad based VTSMX (Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund) was at 32.16. Yesterday on November 3, 2018 it was 67.74. This is a gain of 35.58 which is gain of 110.6% The "safer" VFINX (Vanguard S&P 500 Index Fund) was at 138.32 on  April 11, 2000 and at 261.86 on November 3, 2018. This is a gain of 89.3%. These gains are despite the 50% loss in the Dow from 2007 to 2009. This is the reason that over long periods of time stock indexes are the best retirement investment vehicle for most people.

That continues to be my opinion and I'm sticking with it.

BTW, there is a new book out by Annie Duke, a former champion professional poker player that everyone should read who is interested in the psychology making good decisions. It is called "Thinking in Bets". Annie Duke has a Ph.D in psychology. I give the book 5 stars




"Discovery consists of seeing what everybody has seen and thinking what nobody has thought"..........Szent-Gyorgy

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