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Electric cars - not any time soon

Started by Al, July 15, 2021, 21:07:22 PM

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Al

An eye opener.  Interesting and revealing article

> Depending on how and when you count, Japan's Toyota is the world's largest automaker. According to Wheels, Toyota and Volkswagen vie for the title of the world's largest, with each taking the crown from the other as the market moves. That's including Volkswagen's inherent advantage of sporting 12 brands versus Toyota's four. Audi, Lamborghini, Porsche, Bugatti, and Bentley are included in the Volkswagen brand family.

>

> GM, America's largest automaker, is about half Toyota's size thanks to its 2009 bankruptcy and restructuring. Toyota is actually a major car manufacturer in the United States; in 2016 it made about 81% of the cars it sold in the U.S. right here in its nearly half a dozen American plants. If you're driving a Tundra, RAV4, Camry, or Corolla it was probably American made in a red state. Toyota was among the first to introduce gas-electric hybrid cars into the market, with the Prius twenty years ago. It hasn't been afraid to change the car game.

>

> All of this is to point out that Toyota understands both the car market and the infrastructure that supports it perhaps better than any other manufacturer on the planet. It hasn't grown its footprint through acquisitions, as Volkswagen has, and it hasn't undergone bankruptcy and bailout as GM has. Toyota has grown by building reliable cars for decades.

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> When Toyota offers an opinion on the car market, it's probably worth listening to. This week, Toyota reiterated an opinion it has offered before. That opinion is straightforward: The world is not yet ready to support a fully electric auto fleet.

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> Toyota's head of energy and environmental research Robert Wimmer testified before the Senate this week, and said: "If we are to make dramatic progress in electrification, it will require overcoming tremendous challenges, including refueling infrastructure, battery availability, consumer acceptance, and affordability."

>

> Wimmer's remarks come on the heels of GM's announcement that it will phase out all gas internal combustion engines (ICE) by 2035. Other manufacturers, including Mini, have followed suit with similar announcements.

>

> Tellingly, both Toyota and Honda have so far declined to make any such promises. Honda is the world's largest engine manufacturer when you take its boat, motorcycle, lawnmower, and other engines it makes outside the auto market into account. Honda competes in those markets with Briggs & Stratton and the increased electrification of lawnmowers, weed trimmers, and the like.

>

> Wimmer noted that while manufactures have announced ambitious goals, just 2% of the world's cars are electric at this point. For price, range, infrastructure, affordability, and other reasons, buyers continue to choose ICE over electric, and that's even when electric engines are often subsidized with tax breaks to bring pricetags down.

>

> The scale of the switch hasn't even been introduced into the conversation in any systematic way yet. According to FinancesOnline, there are 289.5 million cars just on U.S. roads as of 2021. About 98 percent of them are gas-powered. Toyota's RAV4 took the top spot for purchases in the U.S. market in 2019, with Honda's CR-V in second. GM's top seller, the Chevy Equinox, comes in at #4 behind the Nissan Rogue. This is in the U.S. market, mind. GM only has one entry in the top 15 in the U.S. Toyota and Honda dominate, with a handful each in the top 15.

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> Toyota warns that the grid and infrastructure simply aren't there to support the electrification of the private car fleet. A 2017 U.S. government study found that we would need about 8,500 strategically placed charge stations to support a fleet of just 7 million electric cars. That's about six times the current number of electric cars but no one is talking about supporting just 7 million cars. We should be talking about powering about 300 million within the next 20 years if all manufacturers follow GM and stop making ICE cars.

>

> Simply put, we're gonna need a bigger energy boat to deal with connecting all those cars to the power grids. A LOT bigger.

>

> But instead of building a bigger boat, we may be shrinking the boat we have now. The power outages in California and Texas — the largest U.S. states by population and by car ownership — exposed issues with powering needs even at current usage levels. Increasing usage of wind and solar, neither of which can be throttled to meet demand, and both of which prove unreliable in crisis, has driven some coal and natural gas generators offline. Wind simply runs counter to needs — it generates too much power when we tend not to need it, and generates too little when we need more. The storage capacity to account for this doesn't exist yet.

>

> We will need much more generation capacity to power about 300 million cars if we're all going to be forced to drive electric cars. Whether we're charging them at home or charging them on the road, we will be charging them frequently. Every gas station you see on the roadside today will have to be wired to charge electric cars, and charge speeds will have to be greatly increased. Current technology enables charges in "as little as 30 minutes," according to Kelly Blue Book. That best-case-scenario fast charging cannot be done on home power. It uses direct current and specialized systems. Charging at home on alternating current can take a few hours to overnight to fill the battery and will increase the home power bill. That power, like all electricity in the United States, comes from generators using natural gas, petroleum, coal, nuclear, wind, solar, or hydroelectric power according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. I left out biomass because, despite Austin, Texas' experiment with purchasing a biomass plant to help power the city, biomass is proving to be irrelevant in the grand energy scheme thus far. Austin didn't even turn on its biomass plant during the recent freeze.

>

> Half an hour is an unacceptably long time to spend at an electron pump. It's about 5 to 10 times longer than a current trip to the gas pump tends to take when pumps can push 4 to 5 gallons into your tank per minute. That's for consumer cars, not big rigs that have much larger tanks. Imagine the lines that would form at the pump, every day, all the time, if a single charge time isn't reduced by 70 to 80 percent. We can expect improvements, but those won't come without cost. Nothing does. There is no free lunch. Electrifying the auto fleet will require a massive overhaul of the power grid and an enormous increase in power generation. Elon Musk recently said we might need double the amount of power we're currently generating if we go electric. He's not saying this from a position of opposing electric cars. His Tesla dominates that market and he presumably wants to sell even more of them.

>

> Toyota has publicly warned about this twice, while its smaller rival GM is pushing to go electric. GM may be virtue signaling to win favor with those in power in California and Washington and in the media. Toyota's addressing reality and its record is evidence that it deserves to be heard.

>

> Toyota isn't saying none of this can be done, by the way. It's just saying that so far, the conversation isn't anywhere near serious enough to get things done.


Woolly Bugger

So I take it you are not a fan!

I am interested in ev and hybrid vehicles — an ev with 500 - 600 miles range would be my target — overnight charging is the way to go —

If there is enough energy to mine Bitcoin there is enough to charge cars — check out nuclear power deals being sought to power Bitcoin mining operations!

ex - I'm not going to live with you through one more fishing season!

me -There's a season?

Pastor explains icons to my son: you know like the fish symbol on the back of cars.

My son: My dad has two fish on his car and they're both trout!

Yallerhammer

I have absolutely no interest in or use for coal-powered cars.

Women want me, doughbellies fear me.<br /><br />Little Debbie Prostaff

Onslow

Hybrids are good.  Battery power, not convinced. Neither will help the blistering UHI situation.

If one wants to help the planet, consume less. I fail to understand why peeps keep the AC at 68 in the Summer, and 73 in the Winter.  This is insanity.

The blame game needs to stop.  The buck stops with me and you.


driver

This sounds like oil company propaganda and anti-clean energy rhetoric. There are definitely down sides to electric cars now. And I wouldn't own one now. But I could see the next 15 years being totally different.


Phil

July 16, 2021, 15:03:29 PM #5 Last Edit: July 16, 2021, 15:30:12 PM by Phil

It's not time yet -- the cars aren't ready, not enough fueling stations, too long to charge, not enough range in miles between charges, etc. etc.

My Subaru gets 35 mpg highway. That's good enough for me. Maybe in 15 years if there's anything left of the world....

Today's EVs tout a 300 mile range. It's 305 miles from here to the beach we visit. What if I run out of power with 20 miles to go? Can I hitchhike to a station and get a can of electricity?


driver

Quote from: Phil on July 16, 2021, 15:03:29 PM

It's not time yet -- the cars aren't ready, not enough fueling stations, too long to charge, not enough range in miles between charges, etc. etc.

My Subaru gets 35 mpg highway. That's good enough for me. Maybe in 15 years if there's anything left of the world....

Today's EVs tout a 300 mile range. It's 305 miles from here to the beach we visit. What if I run out of power with 20 miles to go? Can I hitchhike to a station and get a can of electricity?

^^This is how I feel about it.

A good friend of mine has a Tesla and we all rented a place about 30 min west of Boone. Once they arrived the car estimated they had 30 miles of charge left and the 120v charger he used at the rental would only give him about 4 miles of charge per hour. So they drove into Boone to get groceries and parked 4 blocks from the store so they could use a fast charger and carried the groceries 4 block back to the car.

These EV are nice for someone who lives in town and doesn't do a lot of long distance traveling.

Now when they come out with a electric truck that will tow my boat 3 hours to the coast and not look like a spaceship and not cost $200k, I'll get on board. The torque of an electric motor is insane.

But I think it will happen sooner that you think. Most all major EV makers and normal truck companies are prototyping electric 18 wheelers as we speak.


Dougfish

3 second 0-60 mph gets my juices flowing.

My dream car Audi RS3 does that with a lot of noise.

And I like noise.

But doing it quietly is sexy, too.

"Why don't you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don't you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don't you say something righteous and hopeful for a change? " -Oddball, 1970

"I don't wanna go to hell,
But if I do,
It'll be 'cause of you..."
Strange Desire, The Black Keys, 2006

Woolly Bugger

And then there is this, lithium has to come from somewhere! How about an open pit mine near Bessemer city?

Piedmont Lithium met NC residents for first time after years of planning. Many weren't happy.

https://amp.newsobserver.com/news/local/article252935418.html

ex - I'm not going to live with you through one more fishing season!

me -There's a season?

Pastor explains icons to my son: you know like the fish symbol on the back of cars.

My son: My dad has two fish on his car and they're both trout!

Trout Maharishi

July 23, 2021, 02:35:17 AM #9 Last Edit: July 23, 2021, 02:37:02 AM by Trout Maharishi

Yea look up Lithium mine, it isn't pretty. If Tesla would start taking bitcoin again I might pull the trigger. I think I have just enough to cover an S sedan. Meanwhile I'm holding out untill they start making one powered by Unobtainium. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unobtainium

There's more B.S. in fly fishing than there is in a Kansas feedlot.

Lefty Kreh

Woolly Bugger

1 in 5 electric vehicle owners in California switched back to gas because charging their cars is a hassle, research shows

https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news/1-in-5-electric-vehicle-owners-in-california-switched-back-to-gas-because-charging-their-cars-is-a-hassle-research-shows/ar-BB1gekKk

>>>In roughly three minutes, you can fill the gas tank of a Ford Mustang and have enough range to go about 300 miles with its V8 engine.

But on a recent 200-mile trip from Boston to New York in the Mustang's electric Mach-E variant, Axios' Dan Primack said he felt "panic" as his battery level dipped below 23% while searching for a compatible charger to complete his trip.

ex - I'm not going to live with you through one more fishing season!

me -There's a season?

Pastor explains icons to my son: you know like the fish symbol on the back of cars.

My son: My dad has two fish on his car and they're both trout!

Beetle

Carvana just offered me more than I paid for my Tundra.


Dougfish

"Why don't you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don't you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don't you say something righteous and hopeful for a change? " -Oddball, 1970

"I don't wanna go to hell,
But if I do,
It'll be 'cause of you..."
Strange Desire, The Black Keys, 2006

Woolly Bugger

ex - I'm not going to live with you through one more fishing season!

me -There's a season?

Pastor explains icons to my son: you know like the fish symbol on the back of cars.

My son: My dad has two fish on his car and they're both trout!

Dougfish

"Why don't you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don't you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don't you say something righteous and hopeful for a change? " -Oddball, 1970

"I don't wanna go to hell,
But if I do,
It'll be 'cause of you..."
Strange Desire, The Black Keys, 2006


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