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Precipitation Research (Jerking off)

Started by Dougfish, January 02, 2021, 13:20:38 PM

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Dougfish

January 02, 2021, 13:20:38 PM Last Edit: January 02, 2021, 13:36:53 PM by Dougfish

We talk about too much rain, not enough rain. We can all bitch about it, but numbers don't lie. I decided to look at the numbers of my my local rain gauge over the last 10 years and see if there were any trends, anomalies, etc. When you get to my age, this the equivalent of jerking off.

Roanoke, VA gauge. 1400 feet. About 3/4 mi. as the crow flies.

I ended up cutting it off at 8 1/2 years because of some suspect numbers looking further back.

Weather Underground was my source. I don't necessarily take there numbers to be gospel, but they are measured consistently, at one gauge.

The table, then some explanation and thoughts:

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The bottom row is the totals per year.

The average precip per month is the far right column.

The yellow shaded cells are +50% or more than average. Wetter months

The blue shaded cells are -50% or more than average. Drier months.

2013 - 2016 were pretty normal years. Not too many extremes. 2016 was almost boring.

2017 was a gut punch. It either poured buckets for 3 months, or was really dry for 7.

July-December were devastating for small streams.

2018 was almost the opposite. 6 really wet months, 3 more above average, and only 1 dry month.

2019 was back to dry. If we didn't get the buckets of rain in June of that year, the total would have easily been the lowest. 2 out of three tough trout recruitment years. Results we are seeing now.

2020 will be memorable for many reasons. But if not for a gullywasher May, it was pretty boring rain wise. No big swings. 9 months above average drove the total up. But I'd rather have wet than dry. A good recruitment year? I'm seeing really good bug numbers, too.

The extremes? There are 15 months of +50% or more above average. There are 22 months of-50% or less below average. I wish those numbers were flip flopped. And the number of extremes in the last 4 years is double the number of the previous 4 years. That's kind of alarming.

I would like you smallie guys to give me your take on these numbers.

And I'd like to see some of you yahoos look at your history and let us know how your area has fared.

I pretty sure you can look at the Martinsville/Bassett area and see significantly different numbers. Only 60 miles away.

:;!

Thoughts?

I might scare the shit out of myself and do temperature, next.

"Why don't you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don't you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don't you say something righteous and hopeful for a change? " -Oddball, 1970

"I don't wanna go to hell,
But if I do,
It'll be 'cause of you..."
Strange Desire, The Black Keys, 2006

itieuglyflies

Dougie going all scientist on us. Interesting.


Onslow

Let's examine a watershed this watershed for a moment.

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Note the average flow is 42.3 cfs.

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Below is the average annual flows

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Onslow

Ararat River carnage

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Onslow

Keep in mind these are statewide rankings for NC, and does not take into accout local conditions. Looking at NC precip maps, it appears the mountains are seeing a relative uptick.

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Onslow

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Note the average flow in the top right corner below.

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driver

I would love to see that New River data on a plot graph. Anyone got the time?


Dougfish

Stay on topic.

If you want to examine flows, start a new thread.

"Why don't you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don't you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don't you say something righteous and hopeful for a change? " -Oddball, 1970

"I don't wanna go to hell,
But if I do,
It'll be 'cause of you..."
Strange Desire, The Black Keys, 2006

driver

Quote from: Dougfish on January 02, 2021, 21:50:08 PM

Stay on topic.

If you want to examine flows, start a new thread.

Rainfall=streamflow

Average yearly streamflow directly corelates to rainfall. A plot graph of this woild be interesting to see how rainfall has decreased or increased over 100 years.


Dougfish

Quote from: driver on January 02, 2021, 23:13:41 PM

Quote from: Dougfish on January 02, 2021, 21:50:08 PM

Stay on topic.

If you want to examine flows, start a new thread.

Rainfall=streamflow

Average yearly streamflow directly corelates to rainfall. A plot graph of this woild be interesting to see how rainfall has decreased or increased over 100 years.

The thread can go where the thread goes.

But I think stream flows deserves it's own thread. Much more nuanced.

"Why don't you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don't you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don't you say something righteous and hopeful for a change? " -Oddball, 1970

"I don't wanna go to hell,
But if I do,
It'll be 'cause of you..."
Strange Desire, The Black Keys, 2006

Onslow

I might set up a spreadsheet, but here's what you're looking for (2020)

Jan > 4.66

Feb > 7.02

March > 2.46

April > 7.24

May > 8.71

June > 4.28

July > 2.90.  Julys are always dry in Elkin.  Micro climate thang. Not at the BRP though.

August > 9.28

September > 4.65

October > 9.31

November > 6.77

December > 4.28

So this is around 72 inches of rain for an area that generally receives around 47 inches.

Keep in mind, the BRP around Doughton/Stone Mt. receives almost double this amount during the Summer months.  Trout trickles were nearly too high to fish a good part of the Summer.  That is just dang weird.

2016 was the perfect weather year this past decade.


rford

I found the following on Weather Underground for Danville, but the data is from Greensboro.  I just tracked 2020 and 2019.

2020   2019

Jan   0.68   4.15

feb   7.44   5.86

mar   2.63   3.22

apr   3.78   4.16

may   9.51   2.38

jun   2.41   9.77

jul   3.46   3.33

aug   6.99   5.36

sep   6.56   0.56

oct   5.02   5.45

nov   6.35   2.86

dec   4.44   5.02

59.27   52.12


Big J


Dougfish

Quote from: itieuglyflies on January 02, 2021, 18:43:54 PM

Dougie going all scientist on us. Interesting.

I prefer to think I'm a detective.

Or a nerd.

Or both.

Get me your data, assholes.

"Why don't you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don't you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don't you say something righteous and hopeful for a change? " -Oddball, 1970

"I don't wanna go to hell,
But if I do,
It'll be 'cause of you..."
Strange Desire, The Black Keys, 2006

Phil

"Get me your data, assholes."

Data? It's rained a lot this year, and the water's real cold in freestoners 'cause it's January.

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